The European Central Bank (ECB) announced last Thursday a new increase in interest rates to bring them up to 4,5% and leave the indicators on highs not seen since 2001. This situation has its corresponding effect on the Euribor, which has been rising since the ECB began this policy of increases to fight inflation.
The economist Gonzalo Bernardos, a regular on television talk shows, explained that same afternoon on the La Sexta program ‘Más Vale Tarde’ what the effects of the decision of the institution chaired by Christine Lagarde may be.
Bernardos was confident that this would be the last increase that the ECB carries out. The television economist and professor at the University of Barcelona proposed three derived scenarios.
«We have had the first: we have risen from 4.25 to 4.5. The second, during the following months if there is no big surprise and the inflation situation drops substantially and quickly, we are going to have the interest rate at 4.5 “But in the Euribor we will see a certain downward trend because the next expected movement is downward,” he stressed when questioned about the future situation.
Gonzalo Bernardos’ warning about the future of mortgages
Regarding the third scenario, Bernardos pointed out that by 2024 “the official rates of the European Central Bank will begin to fall.” When rates rise, the Euribor – the indicator to which most variable rate mortgages are referenced – usually follows the upward trend.
For this reason, and for those looking to get a new mortgage, the economist has sent a message: «Let no one believe that they are going to get mortgages for 1 or 1.5% again like they did in 2022. Those short guys are part of history and memory. “They were a gift from kings that some knew how to take advantage of and others did not.”
Different scenario for those who have a mortgage and those looking for one
As for people who already have a mortgage, Bernardos has encouraged them to “change mortgage”. In his words, many families choose to “resist” thinking that the situation will be reversed, but “they are spending much more than they could pay if they had more information about how the financial market works.”
For those who continue searching for a mortgage, the economist has been optimistic: «The banks are not giving many mortgages and they are not meeting the objectives set at the beginning of the year, which means that in the last quarter you will find very good opportunities».
2023-09-16 17:33:42
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