/ world today news/ The West has high hopes for the start of the European leaders’ visit to China. Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen flew to Beijing to resolve a number of bilateral issues and put pressure on the Chinese leadership – including, of course, over Russia. Is there any chance this pressure will be successful?
French President Emmanuel Macron arrived on a three-day visit to Beijing. The main purpose of the French leader’s trip was announced as “the desire to resume economic and diplomatic contacts with China” after three years of “almost absence” due to the Pandemic.
Business? And yes and no.
But analyzing the stay program drawn up by the advisors of the current tenant of the Elysée Palace, it is clear that he has more important things to do in Beijing. Macron is accompanied by around fifty prominent French businessmen. Which, it seems, was supposed to talk about the hopes of concluding profitable deals with representatives of the “global factory”.
Channel BFMTV is full of skepticism: “Many bosses do not necessarily mean many contracts.” With relations with China strained amid the war in Ukraine, signing agreements will be rare. The task of French companies is to remind themselves and confirm their presence in the Chinese market.”
In confirmation of distrust towards the conclusion of any large contracts in the industrial sector, the authors of the publication report that, for example, in the “peaceful nuclear field, China hardly needs France. China is already building a large number of reactors of its own design and will soon surpass France in number.
The French have little hope of working together with Beijing in the railway sector (building carriages and locomotives). According to journalists, “the French Alstom simply cannot compete with the apparently stronger Chinese producer KRRK and will not be able to win a single tender from it”.
If not the restoration and development of relations, then why does Macron need this three-day trip? Perhaps the most accurate, transparent and truthful answer is contained in the title of the Politico article “Emmanuel Macron wants to charm China – after failure with Putin”.
„Dissuading from rapprochement with Russia’
“Failure with Putin” means that as much as the West has tried to influence Beijing, Xi Jinping has not yielded to the persuasions of Washington, Brussels and others like them. And instead of the pressure they expected from the head of the PRC on the Russian president, up to the severing of economic and political ties with Russia, on the contrary, he strengthened them.
France hopes to dissuade Chinese leader Xi Jinping from rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and instead wants the Chinese to play a mediating role in the war in Ukraine. However, it is not clear what leverage Macron has. Moreover, the backstory of his three-day journey is not easy. Europe continues to suffer from the severing of trade ties with Russia, while geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, escalate. “While in France expectations for a breakthrough are moderate, the view of other Western officials is downright gloomy. “Given Macron’s failed attempts to play a central role in conflict resolution, such as ending the war in Ukraine or saving the Iran nuclear deal, there are doubts in the US and elsewhere that this trip will produce any serious results,” the authors add. .
Although Washington wished the French president success in his meeting with comrade Xi. Anonymous White House officials quoted by the publication lamented “Macron’s failed attempts to act as a peacemaker trying to resolve Putin’s conflict with Ukraine in the run-up to the invasion more than a year ago, and expect the result to be no better this time around.” “.
It is true that these employees cannot be considered objective observers. “There is also some anxiety in the Biden administration about a possible rapprochement between France and China at a time when tensions between Washington and Beijing are at their highest level in decades. The White House is somewhat concerned that there is no ill will in Beijing toward Macron’s efforts,” notes Politico.
The woman is in the way
Why is Macron’s visit predicted as a failure? As they would say in France, “a woman gets in the way.” The fact is that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will accompany Macron on a trip to China. Spain’s “El Confidential” believes that the leader of the European Union will rather hinder than help the French.
“The European Union is trying to harden its position on the so-called Comprehensive Investment Agreement, which is again being discussed between the EU and China. Beijing requires it to be truly comprehensive, including in the areas of dual-use trade. And Frau Ursula, speaking at a meeting of the EC on March 30 this year, said that it is necessary to develop mainly the civilian sectors and everything that can be related to the military sphere should be limited to a maximum.
The publication believes that “this is because the EU leadership is under appropriate pressure from Washington. So, after months of negotiations with the United States, the Netherlands announced its refusal to sell its microchip manufacturing technology to China. “
“Ursula is going to Beijing to show that the EU will be tougher on China. But at the same time, she hopes that the EU will not lose the Chinese market,” writes the journalist, implying that this is hardly possible. The publication recalls that on the eve of von der Leyen’s visit, she did not fail to once again accuse Beijing of “turning to authoritarianism” and violating human rights.
“This speech contains many distortions and misinterpretations of China’s policy and China’s positions,” Chinese ambassador to the EU Fu Cun reacted to the EC chief’s words. With such a platform drawn up by von der Leyen, it is naïve to say the least to expect China to agree to the actual presentation of an economic ultimatum to it. Most likely, the president of the European Commission decided to accompany Macron, counting on his help. That his warm relationship with Xi will help her persuade Beijing to sign an agreement with the EU on the latter’s terms.
However, this attempt is unlikely to succeed in the end. “The EU has no real levers for economic pressure on China. The relationship between Brussels and Beijing is close enough financially that all Europe can do is to gradually sever existing ties. This will not be beneficial for the countries of the Old World, but as the situation with Russia has shown, they are not particularly excited about it,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine. “Russia in Global Affairs”.
“They can’t press”
Which of the two tasks is more important for European representatives – business or politics? Most likely both. And, of course, there is an attempt – under the leadership of the United States – to make a new effort to destroy the alliance between China and Russia.
Macron and von der Leyen seem to have some hopes for the success of this mission. At least this is how some observers interpret the statement of the Chinese ambassador to the EU Fu Cun. A Chinese diplomat, according to the New York Times, said Beijing’s statements about the “endless friendship” between China and Russia were nothing more than “rhetorical rhetoric.” In addition, the diplomat added, Beijing does not recognize Crimea and the new territories that have become part of Russia as Russian and does not provide military support to Moscow.
It seems that the whole world is frozen in anticipation of what choice His comrade will make, with whom will he prefer to get closer: Russia or the European Union? If we remember that China has always been a country with its own thinking, trying to take into account its own interests when concluding a deal or choosing a path, it will politely listen to the representatives of the European Union and tactfully guide them to the exit. Beijing does not obey dictates.
As for the sanctions that the EU may impose on it “for disobedience”, the Chinese have something to say. At the very least, it would deny Europeans rare earth metals critical to modern industry.
“Macron and Leyen will no longer be able to put pressure on China. “Beijing’s scale is not such that it can accommodate itself to anyone, especially the EU,” says Fyodor Lukyanov. And as for the leaking of information about “rhetorical devices” – they may be rhetorical devices themselves. Moreover, their reliability by China itself has not been confirmed in any way.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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