Michael T. Osterholm, one of the world’s leading experts in epidemiology, expressed concern about the effects that new variants of the coronavirus may have on the evolution of the pandemic. And he warned that the new wave of Covid-19 will take off “in early or mid-March” and that “it will very possibly exceed what we saw in January.” He even compared the possible new wave to a “category 5” hurricane that could affect several countries.
The specialist had warned in his book “The deadliest threat” 2017 the arrival of a pandemic. Osterholm’s forecasts are being listened to closely by the world of science. He was an advisor to Joe Biden during the election campaign on all matters to be discussed regarding the pandemic and is an authoritative voice in the world of epidemiology.
In an interview on MPR News, the epidemiologist announced that the decrease in cases that is being seen now is “Basically the calm before the storm.”
The cover of the book written by Michael Osterholm.
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All that, as he explained, mainly due to the British variant, which he said is “between 30 and 70% more transmissible”, and “surely is causing more serious diseases, including an increase in deaths and hospitalizations.” And it is that the director of the Center for Research and Policy of Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota was really concerned about the strain that originated in Great Britain.
“They have fundamentally changed the game. And we have to respect it, we have to try to understand what they mean. In fact, I think I know less about these viruses today than I did six weeks ago. The more we learn, the more questions we have about what is going to happen. . And I did not mention neither the Brazilian nor the South African variant “,
Michael Osterholm. Photo: CIDRAP
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Osterholm guaranteed that the vaccines work, but regretted that there is not enough time because there won’t be enough older adults vaccinated before the British variant is fully spread.
“Our studies showed that, if we maintain current vaccination efforts, by the end of March we will still have 30 to 54 million people in this country (United States) over the age of 65 who did not receive a drop of vaccine,” he said. time to invite governments “to accelerate vaccination campaigns as much as possible.”
All in all, the expert believes that if people agree to be massively vaccinated “we could be in a really good situation this summer, especially late.”
British variant
The British strain is already in more than half of the European countries. The head of Emergencies of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Europe, Catherine Smallwood, warned that the variant ‘B.1.1.7’ virus, first identified in the UK, is “spreading” rapidly.
“This particular variant is being transmitted in about half of the European WHO member states, but in addition, more than half of the countries reported cases to us and that continues to increase. So yes, they are worrisome. They will force us. to rethink our strategies, respond a little better and be able to control them, “he declared.
The expert recalled that viruses “evolve naturally”, so “it was to be expected that mutations would arise.”
