The energy transition is lame: more gas heating, more combustion cars

The tracker shows light and shadow: less consumption of fossil energy due to the energy crisis, tentatively positive signs in the expansion of renewable energy capacity, electric cars and heat pumps, but not fast enough. However, the energy transition is not yet on track when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels in the heating and transport sectors. Instead of the necessary decline, there is a clear increase in sales of new cars with combustion engines as well as new gas heaters compared to the previous year, according to a current evaluation Ariadne Transformations-Trackers shows.

PV expansion on track, wind “much too slow”

“The energy transition on the way to climate neutrality is about speed in two respects – and Germany is currently lagging behind,” explains Gunnar Luderer, deputy head of the Ariadne project and scenario expert at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “On the one hand, the energy system must be converted at an unprecedented pace, i.e. as much renewable energy generation capacity as possible must be made available as quickly as possible.” At the same time, bad investments in cars, heating systems and industrial plants must be avoided, as they block the path to meeting long-term climate goals.” .

While there is at least tentative progress in terms of reducing consumption and expanding renewables, the development of some fossil investments is currently going in exactly the opposite direction, writes the PIK in a press release. The net expansion of photovoltaics is on track with over 10 GW in the first nine months of 2023. Wind offshore and wind onshore, on the other hand, are “much too slow”, as is the H2 electrolysis project pipeline.

Still a lot of time until 2030? Are you kidding me? Are you serious when you say that!

At the same time, almost 10 percent more combustion engines were sold compared to the same period last year. For gas heating, sales figures for the first half of the year even show an increase of over 30 percent. A fatal development, because cars are used on average for 15-20 years and heating systems for up to 30 years. Accordingly, a gas heater installed today will continue to produce CO2 emissions into the 2040s unless it is mothballed early or switched to expensive and scarce green gas. Newly purchased cars with gasoline or diesel engines are also expected to have a negative impact on the climate footprint by 2040. “It often seems as if there is still a lot of time for the energy transition to reach the first milestone in 2030 and the climate neutrality target in 2045,” emphasizes tracker expert Frederike Bartels from PIK. “But the course must be set today. Every purchase decision also determines whether we will rely on oil, coal and gas for many years to come or whether the transformation will be put on track with climate-friendly technology.”

With 18 indicators, progress is far too slow – or even backwards

The transformation tracker of the Copernicus Project Ariadne shows whether the energy transition in Germany is on track towards climate neutrality using more than 45 specific key indicators and key figures – from the expansion of renewable energies and emissions figures to investments in cars, heating systems and industrial plants. Currently only 13 indicators are “on track”, 16 others are still at a reasonable pace, but 18 indicators are progressing far too slowly or even in the wrong direction.

The transformation tracker puts real developments in relation to the climate target paths of the Ariadne scenarios. The results show where there are cracks and crunches in the energy transition and where course corrections should be made. It shows the most important advances in the energy transition at a glance – from the energy industry through the individual sectors of buildings, transport and industry to the overall system.

For further reading:

Production study: 16 billion euros in misguided investments in fossil fuels

Scheer: Expansion of renewables instead of focusing on emissions trading