From the original 24 scenarios of the future of the Czech energy sector, which the coal commission started with when it was established last year, the selection was narrowed to four in the final. However, the Commissioners still have very different views on these final options, and they lack some analysis. Some of them do not want to vote at Friday’s meeting.
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“The basis for decision-making is not prepared for voting. In addition, the basic starting point has changed: in all scenarios, we expected a new nuclear power plant in Dukovany to start operating in 2036, but the Prime Minister postponed a tender for a supplier last week, so there was nothing to rely on at all. I can’t vote, “says one of the commissioners (like most of the members of the commission addressed by the SZ Byznys editorial staff, he does not want to comment on the situation with the publication of the name, because members do not have to comment publicly on working in the commission).
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Four scenarios
What scenarios does the commission have on its desk?
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The middle scenario called “Conceptual” envisages the end of the Czech coal energy industry in 2038, as well as in Germany. The Minister of Industry Karel Havlíček, who together with the Minister of the Environment Richard Brabec chairs the commission, does not hide his sympathy for him.
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Then there is the “Progressive” scenario, according to which the last Czech coal source would go out as early as 2033. Another is the “Ambitious” scenario with the same deadline for the end of coal, but with a higher use of renewable resources, mainly windmills and solariums. Both options have the support of the “green” initiatives represented in the commission. And also, for example, five former Czech environment ministers, who in an open letter called on the commissioner to leave coal as soon as possible.
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The last fourth variant is the scenario “Reference” with the end of coal in 2043. In practice, it would affect only a fraction of domestic energy, because most coal resources in our country will not live to be in 2040. Already today, coal production due to high emission prices ceases to pay.
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Spontaneous attenuation
Operators with coal resources are already ending themselves or are planning to do so. Heating plants have already started the transition from coal to gas and biomass. The largest electricity producer in the CEZ country wants to close most of its coal-fired power plants by 2035.
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According to the company’s CEO Daniel Beneš, after 2040, the CEZ Group considers the operation of the youngest and most modern 660-megawatt unit in Ledvice, which was launched only three years ago. In addition, the SevEn heating plant of billionaire Pavel Tykač in Kladno could survive the horizon of 2040.
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Spontaneous abatement plans by coal companies could reverse only two things, both unlikely: the price of emission allowances will collapse, which the European Commission will almost certainly not allow. Or there will be such a shortage of energy and its price will rise so that it will pay off for coal-burning producers despite expensive allowances.
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Impacts unknown
The Coal Commission is due to decide on the date of the “coal shutdown” on Friday, regardless of the fact that the social and economic impacts of the individual scenarios are not yet known. There is also still no legislative plan for the whole process or possible compensation for coal resource operators, who would have to close the power plants or heating plants by the government’s decision before they expire. Germany has promised such compensation to energy professionals. And the attenuation curves of individual scenarios are not processed either, ie the exact timetable for switching off coal sources.
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The two working groups of the coal commission, which were to prepare legislative documents and socio-economic issues, did not succeed in their task.
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“It took a long time to narrow down the number of scenarios, with the original amount it could not be counted. The narrowing to the main variants did not take place until September, but for a long time we did not have the details of the scenarios, so there was nothing to rely on, “described a member of the working group to analyze social and economic impacts for SZ Byznys.
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Not all Commissioners accept this situation. “It is not ideal to decide on the date of leaving coal without impact analysis,” says climatologist Jiří Koželouh, who represents the Green Circle Association of Ecological Nonprofits in the commission. This is also hampered by the fact that the individual scenarios do not incorporate the effects of the conversion of the heating industry – neither in terms of electricity production nor heat.
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Gas instead of coal?
The Commission is also divided on what coal-free energy should look like. The still valid State Energy Concept from 2015 states that one of the main goals is to maintain self-sufficiency in electricity production and not to increase import dependence.
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However, coal cannot be left without an increase in import dependence. All four scenarios envisage at least a temporary replacement of coal resources with gas. And it will be mainly the import of Russian gas, which flows to us today through Germany.
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The Czech Republic lacks connections to the north-south European gas pipelines. Germany, with which we are connected by a powerful gas pipeline from the west, counts on gas from Russia in the future. Because of this, despite the protests of American allies, it is building a new submarine gas pipeline Nord Stream. The main importer of gas to the Czech Republic, the German company Net4Gas, is already expanding its transmission capacity from Germany to us. Turning off coal will inevitably increase the Czech dependence on Russia.
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By the way, the production of electricity from gas imported from vast distances is not very important for reducing emissions compared to the combustion of domestic coal in power plants built directly on coal mines: “You just move emissions elsewhere, the total emission footprint including gas extraction and transportation does not have to be lower, Warns Professor František Hrdlička from CTU, who is also a member of the coal commission. The total emission footprint reflects emissions from gas extraction and transportation.
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Hope in renewables
However, representatives of green initiatives in the coal commission are betting mainly on renewable energy sources. According to the National Plan of the Czech Republic in the field of energy and climate, the share of all renewable sources in energy consumption in our country should increase from today’s 13 to 22 percent by 2030. The planned costs are estimated at 900 billion crowns.
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This year, however, the Academy of Sciences prepared a study of the potential of wind energy for the Chamber of Renewable Resources (KOZE), according to which only windmills could cover up to 31 percent of domestic consumption in 2040.
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KOZE itself claims that in 2030, the Czechia could replace four-fifths of today’s coal production with green resources, mainly due to the development of solariums.
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Therefore, the coal commission had a fourth “Ambitious” scenario calculated in addition to the three basic scenarios of coal decline in 2033, 2038 and 2043, which incorporates a higher potential of renewable sources according to KOZE and the Academy of Sciences.
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The ambitious scenario also envisages the end of coal in 2033. According to him, however, the capacity of solar power plants should be increased to more than four times today’s level (ie to 8,392 MW) and the capacity of wind turbines to 4,000 megawatts from today’s 0.3 MW. By 2043, the capacity of solariums should almost double to 15 GW and the capacity of windmills would increase to 7 GW.
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According to the documents for Friday’s meeting of the coal commission, however, this increase in renewable resources would require additional investment costs only by 2033 in the amount of 493 billion crowns. That is about three times the amount for which the government promises a new nuclear reactor in Dukovany.
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What greenhouse gas savings would this green offensive bring? Compared to the “Progressive” scenario with the end of coal in 2033, emissions would be only two percent lower by 2030, and less than 13 percent lower by 2045. However, the costs until 2045 are already around a trillion crowns.
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Limits for solariums and pinwheels
Another thing is whether the construction of windmills and solariums to such an extent is realistic in the Czech Republic. The construction of wind turbines is hindered by the municipality. Solariums would have to be built not only on roofs, but also on attic, even of poor quality, such as landfills, brownfields, dumps. However, the government does not want to finance such constructions from the Modernization Fund.
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Nuclear physicist Jan Horáček, co-founder of the shadow coal commission, which is looking for alternative ways to get out of coal even faster than 2033, points out other limits. According to Horáček, as soon as renewable energy production reaches about 10 percent of the country’s energy consumption, we begin to encounter unsolvable problems: weather-dependent burst electricity production requires a huge number of back-up energy storage facilities. In addition, there is a risk of high import dependence – two thirds of global production of solar panels is provided by China, raw materials for the production of solar and batteries are mined in developing countries. In addition, the total carbon footprint, again taking into account emissions from transport, emissions from the production and recycling of panels or from the production of steel for windmills, is again growing disproportionately.
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By the way, Horáček left the shadow coal commission some time ago – due to disagreements with supporters of solariums and pinwheels. Like him, however, some members of the government’s coal commission look at energy. “The potential of windmills is reduced by the general reluctance to have masts built behind your house. Solariums cannot fully replace conventional large power plants, they are useful mainly in municipal energy. And when I hear how the accumulation of renewable resources will be solved by building pumped storage power plants in Podkrušnohoří, I have to laugh. Do you know how much capacity we would need for that? In addition, electricity consumption will increase – with electromobility, the advent of heat pumps, the transformation of metallurgy and the like, ”says Professor Hrdlička.
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Uncertain core
Government strategies envisage that the core will play a major role in the Czech energy sector after the decline of coal. Most members of the coal commission, including representatives of green initiatives, are also in favor.
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However, it is still uncertain whether the operation of the Dukovany nuclear power plant will be extended by a decade until the mid-1940s, as ČEZ is trying to do. If this fails, one of the two Czech cores, which today produce 40 percent of Czech electricity, will end in the mid-1930s. And after Prime Minister Andrej Babiš admitted that the tender for the construction of a new Dukovany reactor should be postponed for at least a year, there is growing uncertainty as to whether the giant complicated construction of the new nuclear power plant will be launched at all.
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What does all this mean? If the coal commission votes on the end of coal on Friday, it will be just a formality. We will not know the path to this date or all the implications. The verdict will only serve the government for a political gesture.
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