The near-total domination of men’s tennis by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic for almost two decades has had two unfortunate consequences.
Several generations of accomplished players, from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych to David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori and Kevin Anderson, were all judged by immeasurably high standards before being deemed inadequate and also useless.
Even those who have won Grand Slams, like Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic and Juan Martin Del Potro, have been left behind, as they have not reached double digits and been admitted only reluctantly into the sporting elite. .
The boredom of breeding
At the same time, the consistent and unprecedented excellence of the Big Three has bred a certain form of boredom. Although they are still extremely popular and universally loved, tennis fans are desperate for new heroes to emerge. So much so that the sport and its followers were only too keen to stage a rushed coronation just for the king, expecting not to look the part.
In recent times, Carlos Alcaraz has bucked the trend, winning two major tournaments in quick succession, including Wimbledon 2023 with a sensational five-set final triumph over Djokovic. Hopes are now high that Italian Jannik Sinner, already world number 4, will be the next shining light.
Offense when stretched: Sinner’s movement on the ground has improved significantly over the past two years. Former world number one Jim Courier said the Italian is now “a much better defensive player than he ever was, especially from the right corner”. | Photo credit: Getty Images
The main driver of this conversation is the run the 22-year-old has been on in the fall of 2023. Sinner won his first ATP Masters 1000 trophy in Toronto, added titles in Beijing and Vienna (both ATP 500) , finished a worthy runner. – to Djokovic in the ATP Finals at home in Turin and led Italy to their first Davis Cup triumph since 1976.
Three months after the US Open, he beat Alcaraz once, Djokovic twice and Daniil Medvedev three times. The thrilling three-set victory over Djokovic in the preliminary round of the ATP Finals effectively ended the Serb’s 19-match winning streak on Tour dating back to the Cincinnati Masters.
By the end of the year, Sinner had won 13 matches against top 10 players – including nine between September and November – the most in a season for anyone other than Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray since the 13 victories of Lleyton Hewitt in 2001.
“It’s been remarkable to see his growth over the last two years,” said Jim Courier, former world number one and four-time major tournament winner. Tennis Channel inside podcast. “He’s improved his movement and he’s a much better defensive player than he’s ever been, especially from the right corner.
“He has changed his service over the last year and a half, and it has also improved considerably. He has the power of the forehand and backhand. He’s ambitious and he’s going to be a real problem for everyone in the future.
Slow, non-explosive combustion
Sinner’s rapid growth over the past few months may give the impression that he is in a big hurry to join the upper echelons of the sport, but his rise has been slower and more meticulous than Alcaraz’s explosive rise.
In 2019, at the age of 18, the Italian won the ATP Next Gen Final in Milan, the flagship competition for the best players aged 21 and under. In 2020, he reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros, and the following year he reached his first Masters final (Miami) and entered the ATP top 10. In 2022, he advanced to the quarterfinals of the other three Majors and even held a match point against eventual champion Alcaraz at the US Open. At Wimbledon 2023, he graduated and made his debut in the Slam semifinals.
“I’m the type of player who needs a little time,” Sinner said in an interview last year. “Living these moments, playing on the center courts, facing the best players in the world in important moments or in the final stages of tournaments. Last year [2022], I made a lot of quarter-finals and this year I made a lot of semi-finals and finals. I’m taking good steps forward, that’s the most important thing.
A big reason for Sinner’s progress can be attributed to the changes he made to his coaching staff in 2022. Darren Cahill – a fine tennis mind who has in the past coached Andre Agassi, Lleyton Hewitt and Simona Halep to titles Grand Slam – joined his full team. -time coach Simone Vagnozzi.
The duo’s influence is perhaps best seen in the way Sinner has improved its serve. At 6’2″, he already has the height advantage, and a change to his serving motion – bringing his feet together before the jump – midway through last season made his first shot more lethal and more effective.
Strengthening his arsenal: Sinner worked on his serve to better exploit his 6’2” frame. A change to his serving move last season made his first shot more lethal and effective. | Photo credit: Getty Images
According to Tennis Data Innovations, a joint venture between ATP Tour and ATP Media, Sinner’s service quality increased from 7.8 (January-June) to 8.1 (June-October), with an increase in height (2. 85 m to 2.87), average speed (121 mph to 122) and percentage of serves (58 to 59).
Although gradual, the changes apparently produced a substantial improvement in the quality of the shot on break points, where it landed at 63.5% compared to 53.5 earlier, and thus saved 74% of break points ( against 66) and won 88%. of his service games (vs. 84%).
In December 2023, tennis podcaster Alex Gruskin further quantified this. Mining 33 datasets of seasons since 1991 from Tennis Digest, a blog run by analyst Jeff Sackman, Gruskin concluded that Sinner (2023) ranked fifth in holding percentage.
Elite Underlying Metrics
But surprisingly, Sinner also finished fourth in break percentage – a measure of return play – which helped him join an exclusive group of four other legends (Agassi, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer) to appear in the top five of two.
“Jannik is incredibly competitive – whether we’re playing cards, go-karting, or doing anything outside of tennis, he wants to win, and win badly,” said Cahill, who was named ATP coach of the year 2023 with Vagnozzi, told ATPTour.com last September.
“I think sometimes he’s more concerned about taking five euros from me than earning a $20,000 paycheck, and he’s very pleased when he sees me take the money out of his wallet and give it to him.”
All of which suggests that, as Sinner launches his 2024 campaign at the Australian Open, the expectation that he will make a deep run and sow the seeds of the next era-defining rivalry of the sport with Alcaraz won’t. is not moved. Building on a hot streak in the fall is always tricky, as there is no major tournament to culminate with and there is a break in momentum during the offseason. But confidence is something Sinner will surely carry.
“In 2024 I would like to win my first Grand Slam but I don’t forget the Masters 1000, that also means a lot,” Sinner said. The republic recently. “I want to stabilize my ranking and absolutely return to Turin for the ATP Finals. The Olympic Games are on my calendar and it will be very special to return to Roland-Garros for the Olympics.
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2024-01-05 22:09:06
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