The eighth wave of covids will not be classic

07 October 2022
Today at
14:54

All covid indicators are raised. The eighth wave is here. And a sub-variant from abroad should accentuate or prolong it …

All indicators of the covid epidemic fit increasing. The number of new cases reported increases by 19%. The incidence of the virus is now higher among the assets compared to the general population. Hospitals, education and rail transport are the most affected sectors. absenteeism in companies it should therefore grow in the coming weeks.

“The eighth wave Covid-19 is making itself felt more and more in hospitals, with a further increase in hospital admissions “, commented virologist Yves Van Laethem as part of the weekly update on the pandemic established by the FPS Public Health on the basis of Sciensano data. .

In fact, in one week, the number of new hospitalizations increased by 24%, with an average of 104 hospitalizations per day per covid. Currently 1,427 positive people are hospitalized, including 74 in intensive care (+ 45%).

When is the peak?

“The wave is expected to reach its peak in the second half of October,” according to the public SPF analysis. But for the microbiologist UZ Leuven Emmanuel André, it’s not that simple.

“Two phenomena occur together”, explains the microbiologist. “We are going through the expected seasonal wave, with the sub-variants that we have known for several months.” The Omicron sub-variant BA.5 represents 89.50% contamination. “But it’s still there a nebula of subvariants around the worldsome of which appear to have significant epidemiological benefit. One or the other is likely to dominate in the coming weeks.“

BQ.1 grows in Belgium

BQ.1, detected through genomic surveillance in Nigeria, is already present in Belgium, where it accounts for about 5% of cases. This sub-variant has several mutations with respect to BA.5, from which it is descended. These are found on the spike protein, “which causes our antibodies to recognize the virus less well, which then spreads more efficiently”explains the microbiologist from UZ Leuven.

“This phenomenon will lead to an increase in infections that will accentuate the seasonal wave or prolong it. It will not be a classic peak”.

Emanuele Andre

microbiologist

The presence of BQ.1 in the analyzed samples Double every week. This virus could then become dominate with us in a good month.

“It is not yet clear to determine with certainty which sub-variant will be the most” competitive “, but next to the seasonal wave, this phenomenon will lead to an increase in infections that will accentuate the seasonal wave, or Extend This. It will not be a classic peak, “said Emmanuel André.

What measures?

Faced with the current situation, no Codeco is planned yetconfirms the spokesperson for FPS Public Health.

But vaccination campaigns are underway to administer a second booster for frail people and over 50s. “The current campaign is therefore timely. Older people and those with health problems will benefit individually, but society will also benefit from it, thanks to fewer hospitalizations,” notes Emmanuel André.

“The risk / benefit of very unpopular measures must be considered!”

The vaccination coverage for the second booster dose is currently a lot wider in Flanders than in Wallonia and Brussels. But the north of the country had taken the initiative by inviting the most vulnerable before the summer to receive this dose.

“When the virus is circulating a lot, as it will in the next few weeks, you have to do it take precautionsespecially in the confined and poorly ventilated environments. But should these precautions be transformed into rules decided in Codeco? “, Emmanuel André launches.” We must look at the risk / benefit of very unpopular measures! We are no longer in the scenario of previous waves. The signs aren’t red yet. “

The summary

The eighth wave of covids settles in Belgium. All indicators (contamination, hospitalization, etc.) are rising.
The well-known sub-variants of omcron, particularly BA.5, cause the majority of cases.
But it seems likely that a new sub-variant from abroad will spread rapidly in Belgium.
This wave of epidemic could therefore last longer than expected.

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