Philippe Mercury
Press
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Q : Hydro-Québec’s agreement with New York State leads me to wonder about the level of hydroelectric reservoirs and how they will evolve with climate change. The level of our rivers was low this summer… Do we risk living off load shedding during peak periods of consumption?
Guy Boisclair
R : Mr. Boisclair,
This question is closely followed by many scientists in Quebec, in particular those of the Ouranos consortium founded for this purpose.
Rising temperatures will increase evaporation in rivers and reservoirs, which may indeed suggest that we are headed for problems.
In the north of the province, however, models predict a fairly substantial increase in precipitation over the next decades. The net result is that we are expecting an increase in flow in Hydro-Québec’s hydrological basins of around 12% for 2050.
Alain Bourque, general manager of Ouranos, warns, however, that this is an average and that climate change will also bring greater climate variability. It cannot therefore be ruled out that we will experience drier years in the coming decades in northern Quebec, despite a general reverse trend.
Climate change will also have an impact on electricity consumption. Since it will be less cold in winter, we will need less heating. This drop in demand will be partly offset by an increase in air conditioning in summer, but not completely. Result: Ouranos forecasts an overall decrease in demand of 2.7% in Quebec by 2050 due to climate change.
On another level, the increased frequency of extreme events (strong winds, thunderstorms, forest fires, torrential rains, freezing rain, tornadoes) could increase the risks for Hydro-Québec’s transmission and distribution infrastructure. The state-owned company has just carried out a vulnerability analysis of its assets and activities and a very first climate change adaptation plan is being prepared.
In all cases, Hydro-Quebec ensures that it has enough electricity to meet future demand in Quebec, despite new export agreements with New York State and Massachusetts.
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