“It’s the economy, stupid”, launched James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, to summarize his candidate’s strategy against George HW Bush, during the 1992 presidential election. At the time, the Democrat won against his Republican rival, who had concentrated his campaign on his foreign policy record. More than thirty years later, this maxim, passed down to posterity, has not aged a bit, while the economy emerges as one of the first concerns of American voters before the election on November 5.
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One week before an election which promises to be closer than ever between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the subject could once again be decisive. And favor the Republican candidate. “The brand image of Donald Trump remains strongly linked to his past as a businessman, underlines Lydia Saad, director of social research at the American polling institute Gallup, the theme of the economy is therefore one of his greatest strengths in this campaign.
Are economic issues a key issue in this election?
Lydia Saad Traditionally, the economy is an important issue during elections in the United States. But we see that this is particularly the case during this campaign, since it is the first concern of voters at the national level. The sharp rise in inflation experienced following the war in Ukraine appears to have been a determining factor. Unlike many economic questions, which are often relatively abstract for the population – such as GDP growth or the trade balance – inflation is a very palpable phenomenon that affects everyone. This plays a significant role in voters’ perception of the country’s economic situation. It’s a sentiment that Republicans can easily exploit to their advantage.
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And even though the inflation rate has fallen significantly in recent months [NDLR : elle s’est stabilisée autour de 2 %]prices remain significantly higher than when Joe Biden took office. In fact, if the shopping bag that cost them $20 four years ago is now worth $28, that comes as a shock to many consumers. Especially since it is difficult for people to calculate precisely whether their income has increased proportionally to inflation or not.
In our latest poll, we found that a majority of Americans believe they are “worse off” economically than they were four years ago. This made the economy one of the most powerful themes of this campaign. And the problem will continue to exist as long as prices remain high.
Does Donald Trump have more credibility than Kamala Harris on economic issues?
We see in our opinion studies that Donald Trump’s brand image remains strongly linked to his past as a businessman, and that voters tend to believe him to be more competent than his opponents in managing economic issues. This was measured by polls in 2016, and his first campaign against Hillary Clinton. Subsequently, during his presidency, the approval rating of his economic policies was always higher – sometimes by almost 10 points – than his general popularity rating. Even when his approval rating reached its lowest level – 39% favorable opinion at the start of the Covid pandemic – the approval rate for his economic policies was 47%.
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This is an area in which he outperforms. Our latest poll showed that even in the Democratic camp, 13% of respondents believe that Donald Trump would do “a better job” than Kamala Harris on the economic front. For comparison, only 5% say the same thing for the health sector. Among independents, 59% also prefer Donald Trump to Kamala Harris to deal with the economy. The economy is therefore one of its greatest strengths – especially if this issue emerges as one of the dominant concerns of the campaign.
Conversely, does the Biden administration’s economic record affect voters’ perception of Kamala Harris’ skills in this area?
This indeed appears to be the case. Kamala Harris is nine points behind Donald Trump on perceptions of who is more competent on the economy, while at the same time she is significantly ahead of him on other issues like abortion or health.
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Even though she was not the president for the last four years, she inherits the poor image that voters have of Joe Biden’s economic record. Despite her efforts to distinguish herself during her campaign, it remains very difficult for her, as vice-president, to emerge from the shadow of the administration in place on this issue.
Beyond the economy, what are voters’ other major concerns?
The situation is very mixed. Two very different worlds collide with Republican voters who are primarily concerned about the economy and immigration, and Democratic voters who say they are concerned about the defense of democracy and the right to abortion and the question of appointments of judges to the Supreme Court. Added to this are undecided and independent voters who share concerns from each of the two camps, such as the economy or the defense of democracy. Society is therefore very divided, with areas of concern which, depending on their nature, can favor both Republicans and Democrats. And this is reflected in every poll.
How to explain the rise of Donald Trump in the latest polls?
It is difficult to provide a definitive answer. But today we find ourselves at a stage in the campaign where people generally know what the candidates’ programs and their personalities are. In this context, it is possible that certain so-called moderate Republicans, such as those who supported Nikki Haley and were reluctant to vote for Donald Trump, decided to do so, because the ex-president’s message resonates more with them than the one worn by Kamala Harris. From a mathematical point of view, this could at least partly explain this tightening of the race in this final phase of the campaign.
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Does this vote promise to be one of the closest in recent American history?
The vote could indeed be closer than the last two elections of 2016 and 2020. However, I do not think it could be closer than that of 2000, which pitted Al Gore against George W. Bush. The real unknown is whether the polls miss a surge in turnout in one camp or the other, which could tip the scales more significantly than expected for one of the two candidates. Indeed, we have had examples of this situation in recent elections. But at this point, this election is shaping up to be very close, so I will be careful not to make a prediction on who will win.
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