More than a year after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic outlook, both internationally and nationally, remains very uncertain. The new mutations of the virus and the increasingly heavy human toll are worrying, even if the improvement in vaccine coverage gives cause for optimism.
The economic recovery is uneven across countries and sectors, with the disruptions and scale of support measures induced by the pandemic varying. In Morocco, access to vaccines should promote confidence and the recovery of activity, while the underperformance of tourism and the service sector in general is a factor in the decline of the economic outlook.
According to several observers, the tourism sector will indeed experience a gloomy 2021 season. The sector will remain affected by the crisis in 2021, after gross tourism receipts collapsed by 70% year-on-year over the April-December period of last year.
Likewise, while exports of phosphates and automobiles recorded good performance in January-February 2021, certain sectors are still lagging behind, such as textiles and aeronautics. Result: overall current account receipts will remain below their 2019 level in 2021 and 2022
Moreover, although the country displays macroeconomic stability reflected by relatively low inflation and GDP volatility before the pandemic, it continues to display weak development and governance indicators. Notably high public debt, larger budget and current account deficits than its peers. Containment measures linked to Covid-19 and the drop in global demand have caused a sharp drop in income while current spending has increased to mitigate the health impact of the crisis and cushion the financial impact on households and consumers. companies ”they explain.
The impact of the coronavirus crisis, in particular, on households, is the one that causes the most concern, as the effects of the crisis are being felt directly on the labor market. Labor market where unemployment and inactivity are on the rise, particularly among women and young people.
In fact, in the first quarter of 2021, the volume of employment fell, according to the HCP, by 202,000 jobs compared to the same period of 2020, following a loss of 258,000 jobs in rural areas against a creation of 56,000 in rural areas. urban. By type of job, 185,000 unpaid jobs were lost, resulting in a loss of 178,000 in rural areas and 7,000 in urban areas. Paid employment fell by 16,000 jobs, a consequence of a loss of 80,000 in rural areas and the creation of 64,000 jobs in urban areas.
This drop affects certain sectors more strongly, such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, and industry. Only the service and construction sectors manage to do well.
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