The ECB confirms the tightening, European stock exchanges close down. Milan at – 4%. BTP yields rise, spread up to 166 points

Closing in red for the European lists after the monetary policy communications of the European Central Bank which today met its Governing Council confirming the timing of the monetary policy despite the war in Ukraine. Milan closed down 4.2%, Paris lost 2.8%, London 1.2%, Frankfurt – 2.9%. The performance of the Ten-year BTPs Italians rose to 1.9% with the differential (spread) compared to the German equivalent which expands to 163 points. Business Square Intesa Sanpaolo it lost 7.3%, Unicredit 7.1%. Iveco was also bad (- 7.6%). In profit vice versa Leonardo (+ 1,5%) , Tenaris (+1.6%) and Telecom (+ 3,2%). Moscow exchange always closed, the ruble recovers 1.6% against the dollar. On Wall Street the index S & P500 falls 1.3%, the Nasdaq drops 2%. Bucking Amazon which yesterday announced the 1 to 20 split of the shares.

Today the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, the main rate remains at zero, the deposit rate at -0.50% and the marginal loan rate at 0.25% but stated that “Will close net purchases through the App program in the third quarter”If the incoming data will confirm the inflation scenario by adding that purchases with the pandemic program will end in March and that those with the App will amount to 40 billion in April, 30 billion in May and 20 billion in June. “Any rate adjustments will be gradual” reads the note from the ECB. New Frankfurt forecasts on inflation indicate 4.1% for this year, followed by 2.1% and 1.9% for the following two years, against respectively 3.2%, 1.8% and 1.8% last December. Inflation “could be considerably higher in the short term,” the ECB president warned Christine Lagarde.

“The pace of the recovery will be slower than expected before the war,” he said Lagarde. The central bank has revised down the euro zone growth estimate to 3.7% for this year (from 4.2% indicated in December), to 2.8% for 2023 (from 2.9%) and confirmed + 1.6% for 2023. – The economic risks for the euro area “have risen considerably” after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the assessment of macroeconomic forecastsand now they risk being revised downwards, Lagarde explained. “Budgetary measures, including at the European Union level, would help protect the economy,” said the president.

Yesterday the US rating agency Fitch predicted an “imminent default” of Russia. Other analyzes frame a different situation, as long as gas and oil payments continue the country can hold up financially. The Russian public debt denominated in foreign currency is relatively modest, the equivalent of around € 50 billion. Today the Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft will pay off a bond from 2 billion dollars, plus accrued interest. The Bloomberg agency reported, citing people familiar with the matter while the company declined to comment. The bondholders will receive the money in dollars. Rosneft’s move comes after energy giant Gazprom already repaid $ 1.3 billion on Monday.

Euro down on the dollar by 0.4%. After yesterday’s sharp drops, the oil recovers 1% and is trading at 112 dollars / barrel (brent). Still down, vice versa i gas prices (- 20%) to 124 euros per megawatt / hour. In the morning the Italian Treasury has placed One-year bots worth 6 billion euros at a rate of -0.436%, down from the -0.324% of the February placement. There was a strong demand, amounting to € 9.119 billion.

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