They may be heard as science fiction scenarios and need a big screen and good sound system, but reality can overcome science fiction.
After all, all the journey to the Moon and Mars once seemed like fiction.
Only the earth has already been hit by asteroids. And this scenario is not excluded and does not simply obey “statistical data”. The only difference today is that we know in advance…
On December 27, last year, astronomers who used the Atlas telescope in Chile discovered a small asteroids moving away from Earth. According to The Conversation website, the observations that followed revealed that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is on a course that can lead to conflict with our planet on December 22, 2032.
In other words, space rock is a major threat to our planet.
🚨🇺🇸NASA Is is watching asteroid 2024YR4 that could strike Earth December 22, 2032 it is 50 meters in diameter much smaller than Apophis it is expected to pass earth by 1500 km but that could change.
In the disaster simulation, app they have picked an air burst over New York… pic.twitter.com/nRnHDhPwBt
– Todd Paron🇺🇸🇬🇷🎧👽 (@TPARON) January 29, 2025
It sounds like a Hollywood movie. But in fact, there is no panic reason – this is just another day we live as a goal in the celestial shooting range.
What could happen?
As the Earth moves around the sun, it constantly encounters dust and debris dating from the birth of the solar system. The system is full of such debris, and the meteors and these fiery balls look every night and prove how “infected” our … neighborhood is.
However, most of the debris is too small to cause problems in Earth’s life. There are much more tiny debris out there than the larger pieces – so conflicts from objects that could endanger life on the surface of the earth are much less.
The most famous impact was about 66 million years ago. A giant rock from space, at least 10 kilometers in diameter, fell to Earth – causing a massive disaster, eliminating about 75% of all kinds on Earth.
So great conflicts are, fortunately, very rare events. According to current estimates, objects such as the one that killed dinosaurs hit the Earth only every 50 million years. Smaller conflicts, however, are more common.
On June 30, 1908, a huge explosion occurred in a sparsely populated part of Siberia. When the explorers later arrived at the site of the explosion, they found a stunning location: a forest leveled, with all the trees fallen in the same direction. As they were moving around them, the direction of the fallen trees changed – everything was inward, towards the focus of the explosion.
In this 1953 archive photo, trees are scattered in the Siberian countryside 45 years after the meteorite impact on Earth near Tunguska, Russia. The explosion of 1908 is generally estimated to be about 10 megatones- leveled about 80 million trees within a kilometer of near the point of impact. The meteor who crossed the Russian sky on Friday, February 15, 2013, is estimated to be about 10 tonnes. It exploded with the power of an atomic bomb over the Ural Mountains, about 5,000 kilometers west of Tunguska. (AP Photo, File)
Overall, Tunguska’s event leveled an area of almost 2,200 square kilometers – about equivalent to the extent of the wider Sydney area. Fortunately, this forest was extremely distant. While plants and animals were killed in the explosion zone, it is believed that, at most, only three people died.
Estimates vary on how common such large conflicts should be. Some argue that the Earth should experience a similar conflict, on average, once per century. Others argue that such conflicts can only occur every 10,000 years. The truth is we don’t know – but that’s the only funny side of science.
More recently, a smaller conflict has aroused a worldwide interest. On February 15, 2013, a small asteroid (probably about 18 meters in diameter) exploded near the Russian city of Celiabinsk.
10 Years Ago Today, the Chelyabinsk Meteor Exploded Over Russia
Footage of the meteorite was seen streaking across the sky above Russia’s Chelyabinsk region. WARNING: this video contains strong language in Russian. Source: YouTube youtube pic.twitter.com/l20iuxpR7p— Black Hole (@konstructivizm) February 16, 2023
The explosion, about 30 kilometers above the surface of the Earth, created a powerful impulse wave and an extremely bright glow. Buildings were damaged, windows were broken and nearly 1,500 people were injured – although there were no casualties.
It served, however, as a reminder that the Earth will be hit again. The issue is only when.
This brings us to our last candidate – the asteroid 2024 YR4.
The probability of conflict 1 to 77
The 2024 YR4 has been closely monitored by astronomers for just over a month. It was just a few days after a relatively close approach to our planet and now moves away to the dark depths of the solar system. Until April, it will be lost even one of the world’s largest telescopes.
The observations that took place in the last month allowed astronomers to extend the asteroid over time, calculating its orbit around the sun. As a result, it became clear that, on December 22, 2032, it would pass very close to our planet – and can even clash with us.
There’s a 1.2% chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth along that red belt just before Christmas of 2032.
(via u/clamorous_owle) pic.twitter.com/tpqSzahblR— SpaceExp (@hold50) January 30, 2025
At the moment, our best models for asteroid movement have an uncertainty of 100,000 kilometers for its position as it is closer to the earth. With a diameter of about 12,000 kilometers, our planet falls into this area of uncertainty.
The calculations show that there is today a chance of 1 to 77 that the asteroid falls on our planet at that time. Of course, this means that there is still a chance of 76 to 77 that we will not succeed.
When will we know for sure?
With every new observation of the 2024 YR4, astronomers’ knowledge of its orbit is slightly improved – so the chances of conflict that you may see on the internet are constantly changing. We will be able to watch the asteroid as it moves away from the earth for a few more months, so we will have a better idea of exactly where it will be on December 2032.
But we are unlikely to be able to say for sure if we have escaped the situation at that point.
The asteroid “2024 YR4”, which may collide with the earth in 2032, is a bit worrisome that Akinori Kimura’s calendar matched in the spaceship in 2032!
The possibility seems to be 1.2%, but this scale seems to be the highest level in observation history!
— Naokimanshow (@naokimanshow) February 3, 2025
Fortunately, the asteroid will approach the land again in December 2028 – passing about 8 million kilometers from our planet. Astronomers will be ready to make a wide range of observations that will help us understand the size and shape of the asteroid, as well as to give an incredibly accurate picture of where it will be in 2032.
At the end of this meeting, we will know for sure whether there will be a conflict in 2032. And if there is a conflict that year, we will be able to predict the point of the earth where the conflict will become – most likely accurately a few tens of kilometers.
How big will the conflict be?
At present, we do not know the exact size of 2024 YR4. Even through Earth’s largest telescopes, it’s just a tiny blotch in the sky. So we need to appreciate its size based on its brightness. Depending on how reflective the asteroid is, the current estimates place it somewhere between 40 and 100 meters in diameter.
What does this mean for a possible conflict? It will depend on exactly what the asteroid is made.
The most likely scenario is that asteroid is a rocky pile of ruins. If this proves to be true, then the conflict would be very similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.
The asteroid will explode into the atmosphere, resulting in a shock wave blasting the surface of the Earth. Tunguska’s impact was a “murderer” event, leveling forests in an area of size.
A less likely chance is that the asteroid is made of metal. Based on its orbit around the sun, it seems unlikely – but we can’t exclude it.
In this case, the asteroid would pass intact from the atmosphere and fall to the surface of the earth. If he hit the earth, he would engage a new impact crater, probably more than one kilometer in diameter and a few hundred meters deep – something similar to the meteorite crater in Arizona.
The Meteor Crater in Arizona was created 50,000 years ago! pic.twitter.com/AEeM9T5Xfl
— World’s Amazing Things (@Hana_b30) August 1, 2022
Again, this would be quite spectacular for the area around the impact – but up there.
Living in a remarkable season
All of this sounds like disaster and gloom. After all, we know that the Earth will be hit again – either from 2024 YR4 or something else. But there is a real positive element that we can get out of all this.
There is life on Earth for more than 3 billion years. Throughout this time, conflicts have come and have caused destruction and desolation many times.
But there has never been a kind, as far as we know, to understand the danger, could detect the possible threats in advance and even do something about the threat. Until now.
Hello! I’ve reported on planetary defense for several years now, and even wrote a book on it: HOW TO KILL AN ASTEROID. I’m fielding a *lot* of questions about the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, which stands a small chance of striking Earth in 2032.
Here are your answers. (1/35) pic.twitter.com/fzqxv2xmdk
— Dr Robin George Andrews 🌋☄️ (@SquigglyVolcano) February 3, 2025
Only in recent years, we have discovered 11 asteroids before striking our planet. In any case, we predicted where they would hit and watched the results.
We have also, in recent years, has shown an increasing ability to divert a potentially threatening asteroid. NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) was a stunning success.
For the first time in more than 3 billion years of life on Earth, we can do something about the danger that the rocks prevail from space. So don’t panic! Instead, sit comfortably and watch the show.
Source: theconversation.com
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