The e-service expects that over time Russia will increase its military presence in the northern regions. The background is that Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, and that Russia feels more vulnerable after the Ukraine war.
– Although the Russian Northern Fleet has taken heavy losses of land forces in Ukraine, the Russian air and naval forces are little affected, said E-services acting chief Lars Nordrum at a seminar in Oslo on Tuesday.
The e-service considers the Northern Fleet’s importance to Moscow to be even more important than before the country invaded Ukraine a year ago.
According to Nordrum, the Northern Fleet remains the most serious threat to NATO at sea.
Russia – and also the Northern Fleet – have taken heavy losses.
But the losses have been limited to land forces.
Not affected
Russia’s capacity to cut off NATO’s supply lines across the Atlantic is not affected by the losses suffered by the Russian military in Ukraine, according to the E-service.
The same applies to the ability and capacity to send missiles with nuclear warheads against targets in Europe and North America.
– We consider that the Northern Fleet’s capacity for operations against NATO is fully intact, Nordrum said in his presentation to the Leangkollen Security Conference on Tuesday.
The e-service also indicates that the areas in the Arctic have gained increased importance in Moscow. In the country’s new maritime doctrine, the areas to the north are described as “vital” for Russia, and not just “important”.
– This opens the door for more active use of military force to protect Russian interests, said Lars Nordrum.
Increased interest
The e-service argues that Norway will be subject to increased Russian interest when Norway has now become Europe’s most important energy supplier.
The NATO expansion with Sweden and Finland can also affect how Russia will deploy military reinforcements in Norway’s immediate areas:
– NATO expansion will probably strengthen Russia’s perception that the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region will become a common area for NATO allies’ defense against Russia, said Nordrum.
But Russia’s land defense in the north-west is thus significantly weakened. At best, Russia can draw some forces from other military districts, according to the E-service.
– But over time, it is likely that Russia will increase its offensive capabilities and its infrastructure along its borders in the north-west, said the E-service’s acting chief.
Is China coming?
Another open question is whether Russia will invite China closer into the northern regions:
After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia became suspended from cooperation in the Arctic Councilwhere all countries around the Arctic are members.
The e-service believes that it is likely that Russia will have to think in an alternative way in order to secure support and legitimacy for its interests in the Arctic.
– This could result in Russia being forced to give China and other non-Western countries a stronger foothold in the Arctic, thereby increasing global rivalry in the region, said Lars Nordrum.
PS: Next Monday, the Norwegian security services, the E-service, the Police Security Service PST and the National Security Authority, will present their open threat and risk assessments for 2023.
