Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates and Brazil, host countries of past, present and future climate COPs, gathered under the banner of what they call themselves “the Troika”. But despite their stated talk of decarbonization, they continue to invest massively in fossil fuels, denounces a report from Oil Change International.
They form the “Troika” of climate COP presidencies. Azerbaijan, host country of COP29 from November 11 to 22, 2024; the United Arab Emirates (UAE), organizers of the event last year; and Brazil, which will host COP30 in 2025, joined forces the day after COP28 in order to provide a new roadmap “for mission 1.5”.
Officially, this alliance between the three host countries aims to strengthen cooperation between the countries and accelerate the decarbonization of economies in order to respect the objectives of the Paris Agreement and thus keep the rise in global average temperatures below the threshold of + 1.5° C compared to the pre-industrial era. But despite a diplomatic role assumed by these producing countries to put an end to fossil fuels, the Troika intends to massively develop its own oil and gas infrastructures, denounces a recent report from the NGO Oil Change International.
Find out more: Has the energy transition taken place?
Nearly a third of carbon emissions emitted by new oil and gas projects approved for 2024
However, COP28 in Dubai (UAE) ended with a definite step forward, talking about fossil fuels for the first time in a COP text. “It was the great fight of the Dubai COP, that of obtaining, after a difficult struggle, a compromise text establishing the necessary exit from fossil fuels. Which is not nothing »recalls Romain Ioualalen of the NGO Oil Change International during a press conference organized at the end of November 2024 by the Climate Action Network (RAC).
However, if the political discourse of the Troika is to perpetuate this dynamic, and to become, like France and its COP21, driving countries for international climate policies, the reality on the ground tells a completely different story. “What we are unfortunately observing is a yawning gap between the rhetoric of successive ministers at COP28 in favor of phasing out fossil fuels, and what countries are actually doing at home,” deplores Romain Ioualalen.
Brazil therefore plans a 36% increase in its oil and gas production for 2035, the United Arab Emirates by 34% and Azerbaijan by 14%. According to Oil Change International, la Troika represents a 32% production growth in 2035 compared to the 2023 level on their domestic industries and almost a third of the carbon emissions emitted by new oil and gas projects approved for 2024.
Furthermore, the Troika’s combined fossil fuel carbon footprint doubles when emissions from their exported oil and gas production are taken into account. However, this is not counted in their national contribution given to the UN, underlines the NGO.
COP29: a marked lack of ambition in the world to reduce fossil energy production
“What is absolutely clear in all scientific reports, whether those of the IAE (International Energy Agency, Editor’s note) or the IPCC, is that the opening of new oil, gas and coal exploitation is totally incompatible with the GHG reduction objectives that the countries have set for themselves”, alerts the NGO campaign manager. As the IAE recalls in its 2024 inventory of energy in the worldfossil energy production must imperatively decrease by 55% between 2023 and 2035 to remain below the 1.5°C threshold, i.e. a drop of 45% for oil and gas production, and 72% for coal.
“This poses a real problem with the credibility of political action on the climate”believes Romain Ioualalen. But for him, the fault does not lie only with these three countries. It falls above all to the rich countries (United States, Canada, Australia) which are not dependent on oil and gas for their economy, which have the technical and financial means to get out of it, but which are not undertaking a real transition. on their national territory.
Lead by example at COP29
“As long as these countries do not set an example by taking note of an exit from fossil fuels, it will be very difficult to convince the producing countries of the South, whose economy depends on these industries, to exit” , he adds. However, the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway and the United Kingdom are responsible for half of the global expansion in new deposits planned between now and 2050, underlines Oil Change International in another report.
For the NGO, there is nevertheless still time for the Troika to set an example during the next two COPs by reviewing their national decarbonization strategy. Especially since the exit from fossil fuels is possible, even for producing countries in the South. Colombia, under the presidency of Gustavo Petro, announced in 2024 that it would renounce any new oil, gas or coal projects. However, these industries represent 10% of Colombia’s GDP.
Illustration : Canva
