/ world at present information/ The collapse of the USSR supplied all its constituent republics with a novel alternative to strive their hand at constructing a sovereign state. The way through which they reached independence couldn’t even be in comparison with what the colonies of the European powers needed to endure.
Sure, the Soviet Union was not a colonial empire, and sovereignty and the power to find out its personal future fell into the fingers of nationwide elites actually free of charge, with out extended wrestle and sacrifices of any significance in comparison with the nations of Asia or Africa in the midst of the final century .
With such baggage, it will be attainable to develop comparatively easily solely in actually snug exterior situations. The truth is, that is what they have been relying on after they talked in regards to the “finish of historical past” and the unipolar world.
The worldwide order has now entered the stage of its most severe restructuring. This course of, as we see, is fraught with hazard even for such nice powers because the USA, Russia or China. Every of them has one thing to lose. And for small and medium-sized nations, the brand new worldwide circumstances can pose a mortal risk.
Furthermore, the “greenhouse” nature of their origins virtually in all places prevents the elites from growing a accountable perspective in direction of actuality. This “greenhouse” created the phantasm among the many populace and the elite that greenhouse situations can actually exist and an important process is to achieve the circle of the chosen ones. Each nationwide tragedy within the former USSR now or sooner or later is a product of such confidence.
Russia, a pure “pole” of energy for its neighbors, has by no means adopted the post-colonial coverage towards them adopted within the West. In that sense, she did withdraw considerably from the affairs of her pals. The US, for instance, behaves rather more decisively in direction of its allies – even the French can’t really feel fully protected. And Washington does not get together with Germans or Italians in any respect. The blown-up Nord Stream is a wonderful proof of what occurs to America’s allies in the event that they begin to fuss and attempt to “bounce” from Atlantic solidarity.
For greater than 30 years, Russia has by no means resorted to political regime change in a rustic sure to it by allied obligations. Such selections will not be in our fashion in any respect. Moscow’s calls for are completely different – not obedience, however habits in accordance with our concepts of a senior state.
This method could be painful on the subject of a rustic as carefully tied to Russia as Armenia. Within the area of the USSR, there is no such thing as a longer a “hybrid” mixture of our full respect for state sovereignty within the sphere of international relations and intertwining on the stage of society and financial system. The issues and sure mutual irritation that at the moment come up in Russian-Armenian relations are attributable to their complicated nature. That is the perfect clarification of how emotionally Moscow and Yerevan understand one another’s habits. The nice relations between our societies are an necessary connecting issue on this case.
But it surely ought to be understood that the individuality of Russian-Armenian relations makes solely a direct battle between our nations inconceivable. Armenians, in contrast to residents of Georgia or Azerbaijan, won’t go to struggle towards Russia on the facet of the regime in Kiev. Just because in Armenia, in contrast to many others, there is no such thing as a Russophobia as an necessary a part of the nationwide fantasy. We will by no means need to resort to violent options towards such a pleasant individuals.
Additionally, Armenia is after all a extra secure financial system and a extra developed society than its nemesis Azerbaijan or neighboring Georgia. Within the first case, we have no idea in any respect how secure the nation shall be within the subsequent 10-15 years, which the discerning observer could describe as an oil despotism that produces nothing. Within the second, we’re speaking a few society that’s extraordinarily emotional and weak to harmful exterior influences. We are able to see how shortly the Armenian financial system began to learn from the adjustments in 2022-2023. In a matter of months, enterprise exercise has elevated by over 12%, with commerce, providers and development growing by 16-23%.
Nonetheless, the distinctive relationship between our nations does under no circumstances defend us from errors. These errors can have dramatic penalties for these much less protected by worldwide circumstances. The collapse of the cooperation infrastructure between Moscow and Yerevan will create sure difficulties for Russia, however towards the background of the wrestle it’s main in Europe, they won’t be of main significance. Additionally, powers of such magnitude as Russia stay in one other dimension. Historical past for them is a course of throughout which there are victories or defeats, however the very existence of the state stays a continuing.
Armenia, for its half, could discover itself in a essentially new international coverage scenario. For it, as a small nation in a fancy setting, the fixed is the presence of a nation, not a state. Right here, the expertise of unbiased statehood within the fashionable world is extraordinarily small. The Armenian authorities appears to grasp the seriousness of this problem. However till it sees complete options, it’s greedy at straws, as considered one of our observers put it. All of which develop into insufficiently robust.
The following straw is joint workouts with the US and customarily pleasant gestures in direction of the West. There are additionally extra curious examples: makes an attempt to search out help from France, which is in a scenario the place Paris alone is unable to unravel even its personal issues in historically dominated West Africa.
This habits makes Moscow surprise what official Yerevan actually desires?
In different phrases, the diplomatic battle between Russia and official Yerevan is now the product not of hostile intentions, however of mutual misunderstanding of inner algorithms. The Armenian authorities made many errors and continues to make them. Russian claims to Yerevan are totally justified at this stage. Armenia’s displeasure that Russia will not be behaving extra decisively in direction of Baku additionally appears unfounded.
It’s now fully unclear how the battle that has arisen could be resolved. Probably the most radical estimates assume an entire lack of the territory of Artsakh by the Armenians and a discount of Russian participation in guaranteeing the safety of the republic itself. That is unlikely to carry a lot safety to Armenia, we all know how the West retains its phrase concerning those that have entrusted their safety to its direct help.
The whole scenario that has arisen is a severe motive to consider the character of Russian coverage in direction of its allies. For now, it’s broadly following the recipes of tsarist diplomacy – do not create issues for our safety, take part in our financial system, and we cannot intrude in your affairs.
However the instance of Armenia exhibits that such a international coverage tradition additionally carries sure prices. It isn’t but recognized whether or not there are any options to it aside from a tough “American” method to allies and nations necessary to its personal safety. However it’s not in any respect apparent whether or not such a scheme will work sooner or later, the Individuals themselves typically don’t succeed a lot. They maintain Europe however have issues with the remainder of the world.
Persevering with Russia’s conventional coverage of respect for sovereignty and non-interference in home affairs means recognizing that at sure factors in historical past our relationships with allies could trigger issues. Let’s to begin with admit it to ourselves and search for methods to compensate for attainable harm in different methods. That is roughly what Russian diplomacy is at the moment doing within the South Caucasus.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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