Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noticed that the combat capabilities of Russian units that are constantly fighting in the Orekhovsky direction have deteriorated significantly; they can no longer carry out all counterattacks and resist the Ukrainian breakthrough.
Source: ISW
Details: Analysts note: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, during a conference call with the Russian military leadership, noted a strange group of Russian armed formations operating in the western direction of the Zaporozhye region.
They add that Shoigu’s choice may indicate that he is seeking to single out Russian commanders who continue to carry out orders from the Russian military leadership for continuous counterattacks.
Shoigu attributes successful Russian defensive operations around Robotino and Verbovo to units of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District), 56th Airborne Brigade, 56th Air Army (Southern Military District) Military District), 56th Airborne Assault (Airborne) Regiment (7th Airborne Division), 810th Marine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and 291st Guards Artillery Brigade (58th Army of the Southern Military District) during a meeting of the Russian military command on October 3.
Experts noted that Shoigu did not identify other formations that are usually credited with holding the Robotino-Verbovo line, such as the 108th Regiment (7th Airborne Division) or the 247th Regiment (7th Airborne Division).
According to experts, the Russian Ministry of Defense regularly deliberately downplays or overstates the achievements of certain commanders in order to achieve the political goals of Shoigu or the Russian military command.
Some of the formations allocated by Shoigu constantly counterattack on the Robotino-Verbovo line, which causes them damage.
The report recalls that on September 26, ISW recorded that units of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment and other formations of the 58th AK (probably including the 291st Guards Artillery Brigade) continued to counterattack near Novoprokopovka, despite their likely degraded condition.
ISW assesses that the involvement of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment in these counterattacks indicates that the combat capabilities of the active elements of the 7th Airborne Division have deteriorated significantly, and that they can no longer carry out all counterattacks along the Ukrainian breakthrough in the Orekhovsky direction.
ISW Key Findings for October 3:
Shoigu, during a conference call with the Russian military leadership, noted a strange group of Russian armed formations operating in the western direction of the Zaporozhye region. Shoigu’s choice of units may indicate that he is seeking to highlight Russian commanders who continue to carry out orders from the Russian military leadership for continuous counterattacks. The Russian Ministry of Defense has signaled its support for both Chechen units in Ukraine and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov amid recent controversy surrounding ethnic tensions in the Russian government, military and media space. Putin is preparing to announce his presidential campaign in November 2023 and reportedly intends to discuss the war in Ukraine as little as necessary in political messages. According to Reuters, Russian troops have incorporated Shturm-Z units into regular Russian units to conduct costly counterattacks against the Ukrainian offensive on key sectors of the front. Ukrainian troops continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the west of the Zaporozhye region on October 3. On the night of October 2-3, Russian troops carried out a series of drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. The Armenian Parliament ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court on October 3. Russian troops carried out offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdeevka-Donetsk line, in the border zone of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions, as well as in the west of the Zaporozhye region and advanced in some directions. The FSB is investigating Kursk Region Governor Roman Starovoyt, likely in an attempt to eliminate officials associated with deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Russian publication “Verstka” found that almost half of all occupation officials at the top and middle levels of management in the occupied Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk regions are from Russia.
2023-10-04 02:58:05
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