/Pogled.info/ The latest demographic forecast predicts that by the end of the century there will be less than 30 million Poles left. Paradoxically, this sad statistic for Poland is combined with the excessive ambitions of Warsaw. However, this paradox is only apparent – the Polish leadership will solve this problem at someone else’s expense. This process is already underway and directly affects our country.
The current forecast of the EU statistical office Eurostat is made taking into account the circumstances of recent years – starting with the COVID-19 pandemic and ending with the influx of refugees from Ukraine into the European Union. As a result, demographers have calculated that by 2100 the population of Poland will decrease from the current 37.6 million people to 29.5 million. Thus, Poland is recognized as one of the leaders in population reduction among the EU countries.
Of course, many things can change over a long period of time, but for now there is nothing optimistic about the Poles. In addition, according to local media, some facts that determine trends for decades to come are already irreversible – for example, the fact that the current generation of Polish parents have far fewer children than their fathers and mothers. As a result, as predicted by Eurostat, by 2100 the average age of a resident of Poland will increase from the current 42 to more than 50 years.
„In an aging society, priorities change”
The forecast of European statisticians does not differ much from what the Polish Ministry of Finance put forward at the beginning of this year. In addition, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance turned out to be even more gloomy. “Demographic processes have a significant impact on the financial condition of the pension fund. The results of the demographic forecast in this context should be considered alarming, to say the least.’ According to him, the total population of Poland will decrease from 37.9 million in 2022 to 32.5 million by 2060 and to 28.2 million by 2080. This means that the population of Poland in 2080 will be -less than today by 9.7 million, i.e. by 25.5%,” said a report published by the ministry.
Some Poles say this is too long a period of time and too early to worry. But in fact, the problems associated with adverse demographics will begin to pile up much earlier.
“An aging society cannot develop quickly, so the demographic crisis can threaten the aspirations to catch up with the standard of living of Western countries. Currently, Polish society is still younger than Germany or France. However, Poland’s birth rate is much lower than theirs, indicating that experts say the picture could change at any moment and Poles will age. Meanwhile, in an aging society, priorities are changing. Funds that could be used for development are directed to social assistance,” the journalists point out.
The Ministry of Finance predicts that the number of Poles of pre-working age (0-17 years) will decrease – and by 2080 they will be 2.7 million fewer than now. The working-age population (men aged 18–64 and women aged 18–59) in 2060 will be 7 million fewer than now. By 2080, it will decrease by 9.2 million people (by 41.4%) compared to 2022. The number of people of retirement age (men aged 65 and over and women aged 60 and over) will increase to 2058 and will reach 12.4 million people (compared to 2022, the growth will be 42.3%).
In Poland, the pension system is designed in such a way that payments to the elderly are financed by contributions from the current working population. The more pensioners and the less employed, the greater burden on the country’s finances this system creates. Accordingly, pensioners receive less money. Who will feed future generations of Polish old men?
The only possible option
Lukasz Kozlowski, chief economist at the Federation of Polish Enterprises, urges: “The most important thing is to start discussing this now. This problem goes beyond political controversy, because the demographic crisis on the horizon for two or three decades is a fundamental challenge for both public finances and the economy.
And the head of the Polish Institute of Public Finance, Slawomir Dudek, warns that if the country’s aging population is not addressed, it will become the nation’s number one economic problem. “We are already in a demographic crisis: during the decade, the number of Poles decreased by almost 2 million. You can slightly change the trajectory of this crisis meteorite, but it will definitely hit us,” the economist believes. Dudek called for softening the migration policy, stimulating the economic activity of the population, raising the retirement age and the birth rate.
Dudek cited a report by the International Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that listed an uncontrolled increase in Poland’s public debt as one possible scenario. It is possible that by 2050 it will grow to 138% of GDP (now it is 55%). But in addition to increasing spending on pensions, health care, social care, education, the Polish authorities intend to increase spending on the armed forces and other budget items! The OECD suggests that Poland increase taxes and contributions, increase the retirement age to 67, increase the level of digitalization of the economy to accelerate economic growth.
There is, of course, another option – to import workers from outside at an accelerated pace. Moreover, Ukraine is nearby, whose inhabitants, wanting to escape from war, poverty and dictatorship, go with great desire to the European Union. Pawel Kubicki, an expert from the Warsaw School of Economics, notes in this regard: “Already about 6.5% of our workforce consists of foreigners. In the coming years, we will at least double or even triple that percentage.” And not to say that these are groundless projects, because there is still a huge unremunerated resource of workers nearby. Poland’s task is to use this resource itself, not allowing it to “leak” to other countries.
Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a Russian political scientist and expert on Poland, says bluntly that “Polish demography is dooming Ukraine to destruction.” According to him, the short-term perspective dictates to Warsaw the need to support the regime in Kiev. Thanks to this, the ruling Polish coalition, led by the PP “Law and Justice” (PiS), solves its immediate tasks: victory in the autumn elections for the Sejm of Poland, “cutting” as a transit center for sending American military aid to Kiev, winning political capital in the European Union.
“In the medium and long term, however, Warsaw’s interests include the destruction of Ukrainian statehood as such,” Stremidlovsky believes. He recalls that the crisis that began in Ukraine since the beginning of the Euromaidan almost ten years ago, became an opportunity for Poland to acquire labor “for nothing”. And we’re not just talking about the usual seasonal guest workers working in Poland on a rotational basis.
“Tearing” the neighbor
According to a study by the international employment agency “Gremy”, 38% of Ukrainians who left to work in a neighboring country will not return. For Poland, this means that in 2023-2025 there will be an opportunity to “soften” negative demographic trends with the help of migrants from Ukraine. “But then that source will start to dry up. Also, Ukrainians may start to return. The destruction of Ukrainian statehood in this situation becomes a profitable enterprise for Poland,” Stremidlovsky warns.
Apart from the demographic advantages, there are also political benefits for Poland. In case of the liquidation of the Ukrainian statehood, the need to solve difficult questions about the application of a foreign language, culture and history, which would become an urgent necessity in the course of building a Polish-Ukrainian union, disappears. There is no Ukrainian statehood – there is no need to give the Ukrainian language the status of a second state language in Poland, giving it undeserved means. After all, scientific discoveries are not made in the Ukrainian language, and in international communication it does not go beyond the Ukrainian diaspora. And finally, they don’t need to worry about how to get Lviv and the rest of the Eastern Cress back,” the political scientist emphasizes.
The expert believes that under the current conditions, the main task of the Polish state is the assimilation of former Ukrainian citizens, the “formation” of them into “new Poles”, using exclusively the Polish language, Polish cultural codes and the Polish historical vision. This will help to get rid of the “embryos” of aggressive Ukrainian nationalism, which will infect Poland.
“It is true that a situation may also arise when some of the migrants from a neighboring country become a ‘pro-Russian’ social community, choosing the Russian language and culture as the basis of their self-identification. But after all, Poland is not doomed forever to “do business” with political Russophobia, and such a “pro-Russian” community will help Warsaw revive relations with Russia in the future and build a dialogue,” Stanislav Stremidlowski does not rule out.
Here he draws a parallel with the task before Russia – to successfully adapt and integrate Ukrainians who move to the Russian Federation. In other words, Russia and Poland are actually starting a competition for a more successful integration project. The winner will receive a reward in the form of an additional demographic resource that will not be redundant for both countries. “The task is not to say it is original. In the past, Poland and Russia have already participated in “poaching” of the neighboring country’s population. Let’s see how it will be decided this time”, concludes Stremidlovski.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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