The delta variant of the coronavirus: the contagious fun spoiler

20 november 2021
today at
03:00

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A virus more contagious due to mutation makes it difficult for us to get out of the pandemic.

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1) Why don’t we make it with the vaccines, when we were promised that?

The infectious delta variant is the game changer. That mutation of the original virus crushed the other variants between April and June. Delta is dominant worldwide and accounts for 100 percent of the infections in Belgium.

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Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) stated after the Consultation Committee that the coronavirus has become three times more contagious since its rapid advance from Wuhan, China. The scientific explanation is that the reproduction number of the delta variant – how many new infections an infected person causes if the virus gets free rein – is 2.65 higher than the original Wuhan type. It means that the reproduction number or R-value of the delta variant is now 6.5.

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That is a figure with major consequences. With the Wuhan type, it sounded that a vaccination rate of 75 percent in the population would suffice for herd immunity. That’s when the pandemic stops because not enough susceptible people are in each other’s vicinity and the virus no longer spreads through new infections.

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That vaccination rate has since become obsolete due to the much higher contagiousness of the virus. At an R-value of 6.5, the number of people vaccinated already has to reach 95 percent to achieve enough immunity, a simulation by De Tijd shows. Such a high coverage ratio is extremely difficult to achieve. There is also an additional condition. Vaccines also need to protect at least 85 percent of the population from infection (the degree of protection or effectiveness) to make it through shot alone.

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2) How well do the vaccines work?

The mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna appear to be close in protection against infection and hospitalization. But a lot of people have also been pricked with J&J and AstraZeneca. Studies on the latter vaccine indicate that it only offers 65 percent protection against infection. That makes group immunity mathematically impossible.

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This calculation emphasizes the importance of a third booster shot. According to new UK research, a third shot with both Pfizer and AstraZeneca boosts protection against symptomatic infection again above 90 percent. This makes it possible again to achieve herd immunity by stinging the population – although this has to be done for almost everyone. Since it became clear that a large group of people are difficult to prick, the question is whether additional protection such as mouth caps are needed in autumn and winter. It also explains why the trend of mandatory vaccination is gaining ground.

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3) Why are the hospitals filling up again?

The purpose of the vaccines is to protect against hospitalization and death. That works. In the past two weeks, 291 vaccinated (figures up to 9 November) – out of a population of 8.6 million who had been vaccinated – and 203 who had not been vaccinated – out of a population of 2.7 million ended up in intensive care units. The standard infected corona patient in intensive care is in his seventies with underlying conditions, while the unvaccinated patient is more likely to be in his fifties.

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The explosion of 20,000 positive cases per day leads to far fewer admissions, intensive care patients and deaths than at previous peaks. If there are now an average of 250 admissions per day, there were 510 and 676 during the first and second peak in 2020. And that without draconian corona rules, as before.

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The standard infected corona patient in intensive care is in his seventies with underlying conditions, while the unvaccinated patient is more likely to be in his fifties.

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Thanks to the vaccines, the link between infection and disease burden has been reduced, but unfortunately not broken. The virus circulation is so great that there are too many admissions to allow hospitals to combine their regular care with covid care.

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The culprits are the breakthrough infections. Infected people can still become infected and pass on the virus. It is a setback that people who have also been pricked are less protected than expected against infection and its transmission. This means that the virus continues to circulate en masse. It’s not just the uninoculated who drag the vaccinated along, although the problems would be less serious without deliberately uninoculated. There is so much virus that older and vulnerable vaccinates also become reinfected and end up in hospital. Protection also appears to decrease most rapidly in the elderly.

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In our country, nearly nine in ten adults and three quarters of the entire population have been vaccinated. That’s a good score. But in absolute figures, it means that 2.8 million people – including children between 5 and 12 years – still have not been vaccinated. The infection rates in primary education show that stinging children – as soon as medical authorities allow it – can help contain the epidemic.

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Among the pricked are also 350,000 to 400,000 high-risk cases with impaired immunity. In addition, there are nearly a million more vaccinated people over 75 – age, together with obesity, is the greatest risk factor for a serious course of the disease.

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There are still too many people susceptible and vulnerable to the virus to reach the endemic phase – in which people get sick and die, but care can sustain it.

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4) What’s in store for us with the virus?

The current virus contains one hundred mutations on the original delta variant. Experts state that it is difficult to estimate when a more adapted variant – one that is more contagious or better able to escape the antibodies in our body – might expel delta. There are signals from the United Kingdom that a new, even more contagious variant is on the way. Although in the past other advancing mutations appeared to have faded away. Experts say it is positive that the delta variant will remain dominant for a long time. Flu viruses mutate faster than their shadows, which explains why a modified flu shot is needed every year. The slower corona mutation fuels the hope that corona vaccines will prove more effective against the virus, although no one dares to rule out an annual corona jab.

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