The Decline of Electric Vehicle Sales in Germany: 2023 Year in Review

What is the old “Sponti saying”? Half as bad isn’t twice as good. This is roughly how you could describe the year 2023 and the transformation to electromobility in Germany.

Dream numbers

2023 should bring the breakthrough in electromobility, because let’s remember: the traffic light set a target of 15 million electric vehicles for 2030. However, one hadn’t expected the traffic light’s final opponent – the traffic light itself.

Goodbye subsidies

It was already clear in 2022 that the following years would be more difficult because the subsidies, aka “environmental bonuses”, would be phased out over the next few years. What I mean is: if the funding pot were empty, the OEMs from home and abroad would have to be at a stage where the electric vehicles would be self-sustaining. That was actually too short.

In December 2022, an incredible 104,325 electric vehicles were registered, which resulted in a total of 470,559 electric vehicles spread over the year. The reason was the first reduction in the environmental bonus from January 2023.

TOP20 BEV new registrations and share by brand in Germany (2023)

August 2023

There was another (announced) change in August 2023. Electric vehicles registered for business and commercial purposes would no longer receive a state environmental bonus from September. 86,649 electric vehicles were therefore registered shortly before the deadline – in September only 31,714 electric vehicles were registered.

The market reacts sensitively

Even though publications and influencers repeatedly asserted that the TCO of an electric car is already cheaper than a combustion engine, German consumers remained skeptical.

Above all, the oft-touted breakthrough was slowed down by the reduction in government subsidies. The worst effect was the hysterical December decision by Economics Minister Habeck to cancel the remaining subsidies from one day to the next in the wake of the budget crisis triggered by an unconstitutional budget.

A disservice to environmental policy

The wrong decisions and the amateurish economic and financial policy of the traffic light have ultimately done a disservice to transport transformation. It seems downright frivolous that we are still sticking to the figure of 15 million electric vehicles for 2030.

TOP 20 BEV-Sales of car models in Germany (2023)

VW suffers the most?

The VW Group was hit hardest by the erratic politics. There was repeated talk of “the roof structure being on fire”. In fact, the VW brand actually achieved a small, respectable success in 2023. She relegated Tesla to second place when it came to electric car registrations. 70,628 vehicles from Wolfsburg were registered, but only 63,685 Teslas. The Americans even had to accept a decline of almost 10% compared to the previous year, even though the Model Y was the best-selling electric car in Germany.

Outlook for 2024

Will the consumer recover after the shock in 2023 and continue to push the transformation? Even industry insiders now doubt this. 524,219 electric cars were registered in Germany in 2023, which is around 18% of all registrations.

The CAM (Center of Automotive Management) expects only 430,000 to 480,000 new registrations in 2024. The reasons for the expected decline are varied. Firstly, the loss of the environmental bonus plays a major role. Then there is currently no impetus for the affordable mass market in the form of affordable vehicles. And finally, the economic environment is currently unfavorable.

“Car Pope” Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer is even clearer. In an interview with the news channel “ntv” he warned of a renaissance of the internal combustion engine and spoke about the traffic lights: “Germany’s car manufacturers no longer take the chatter of Habeck and Co. seriously anyway. After a few months they will decide to put all their energy back into the highly profitable combustion engine.”

Buyer’s market

For those who are still considering buying an electric car, 2024 will still be exciting. Because the market is changing into a buyer’s market. The car companies are already trying to compensate for the high prices of the vehicles and, above all, to reduce the growing stockpiles with their own “environmental bonuses” and special offers.

But it is also a fact that 2024 will be a lost year for the German electric vehicle market. The 15 million figure for 2030 now sounds like the 5-year plans under socialism that were never kept… What a shame.

2024-01-28 13:42:19
#electromobility #Germany #Ultimately #worse