Madrid, Sep 14 (EFE).- The northwest third of the peninsula and the interior of the southern half concentrate the largest falls in school population recorded in the last ten years and projected for the next fourteen, in a trend from which only one is saved. handful of provinces.
It is the map drawn by the analysis “Schools are running out of children: an opportunity to transform the educational system”, signed by researchers Lucas Gortázar and Jorge Galindo, both from the Esade Center for Economic Policies (EsadeEcPol).
The work recalls that between 2013 (the historical maximum) and 2023 Spain has lost 450,000 children under 16 years of age and predicts that by 2037 the figure will have exceeded one million boys and girls.
This study says that the “deep inequalities” of Spanish demographics, also in educational matters, occur not only between communities but also between provinces and municipalities and even within each of the territories, although “the tone is always the same: “In rural areas the demographic decline is much greater than in urban areas.”
To approximate this reality, they have compared the drop in the population aged 0 to 15 years by province from the maximum demographic peak in Spain, which occurred in 2013, to 2037, the year in which the projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) stop. and which also approximately coincides with the replacement of an entire cohort of that age group from the current moment (14 years from September 2023).
The figures obtained reveal that the most pronounced falls are concentrated in Castilla y León and other provinces in the north and southern interior, in contrast to others that bring together medium-sized municipalities, which present a maintenance scenario, and some that offer positive rebounds.
And the conclusion is clear: “if Spain already has a remarkably polarized educational demand, it will become increasingly so: a few points (densely populated centers with less negative demographic prospects) concentrating abundant demand; accompanied by many other points with little demand, but especially dispersed, and in clear demographic decline”.
In more detail, the EsadeEcPol study estimates the following variations in the school-age population between 2013 and 2037 (in percentage):
Zamora -44
Jaen -35
Asturias -34
León -34
Palencia -31
Real City -31
Caceres -31
Badajoz -31
Pontevedra -30
Cantabria -30
Salamanca -30
Córdoba -29
Cadiz -29
Valladolid -27
Burgos -26
Sevilla -26
Albacete -25
Ourense -24
Avila -24
Tenerife SC -24
A Coruña -23
Lugo -21
Bizkaia -21
Segovia -19
Las Palmas -18
Castellón/Castellón -17
La Rioja -16
Gipuzkoa -14
Granada -14
Cuenca -13
Teruel -12
Valencia/Valencia -12
Huelva -12
Soria -11
Toledo -11
Guadalajara -11
Álava/Araba -10
Madrid -10
Málaga -10
Zaragoza -8
Barcelona -7
Lleida -7
Tarragona -5
Alicante/Alicante -3
Huesca-2
Girona -2
Murcia -1
Navarra 0
Balearics 7
Almeria 7
EFE
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#Classrooms #emptier #northwest #peninsula #interior #southern
