We saw a harbinger of the impact of the lockdown on the economy in the result from last quarter (-0.4 prod. Kdk). However, now we are dealing with a picture after the battle – comments Sonia Bucholtz, an expert of the Lewiatan Confederation, referring to the latest GUS data on the decline in Poland’s GDP in the second quarter of 2020.
- “Image after the battle” – this is how the economist of the Lewiatan Confederation describes the latest data on Poland’s GDP
- Poland’s GDP in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by 8.2%. on an annual basis
- Sonia Bucholtz recalls that deep restrictions were in force for a month, and it took another two to defrost the economy.
Gross Domestic Product decreased by 8.2%. on an annual basis. According to the economist, is the price the economy pays to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
A full month deep administrative restrictions and two months of defrosting – which is important, with relatively low geographical mobility, self-discipline and a low number of infections in the country – shrunk the Polish economy by almost 9%.
– emphasizes Sonia Bucholtz in the commentary.
The price of the epidemic for the Polish economy
Among the reasons, he lists the administrative shutdowns of plants, temporary suspension of companies’ activities, sanitary regime making it difficult to achieve full capacity in services, reduced productivity in remote work and the transition period, incomplete production capacity of companies in supply chains, and consumer anxiety.
Even so, consumers have a much more positive outlook than businesses. This can be seen in the data on sold production, retail sales and economic conditions. However, the threat of a second wave is not conducive to returning companies to the pre-pandemic growth path, but also traditional regulatory uncertainty. Its example may be the unjustified increase in the minimum wage to PLN 2,800 in 2021, as well as the implementation of the trade tax and the announcement of the introduction of the sugar tax. Such steps increase the risk of severe sector shock. Without the budget, it is also difficult to say how the state sees continued support for companies in these conditions, if at the same time it wants to carry out fiscal consolidation
– we read on.
In her opinion, the probability of the scenario implementation -5 percent. real growth for 2020 remains quite high. “The return of the product to the level of 2019 is more likely in the first half of 2022 than at the end of 2021” – assesses the Lewiatan Confederation expert.
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