How are elections conducted during wartime?
For months, Ukraine has been embroiled in a heated debate over whether the country should hold presidential elections in March next year, as originally planned.
All elections – including presidential ones – are banned under the country’s current martial law imposed after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Many in Ukraine are outraged by the idea, fearing the vote could distract the nation from its battle for survival.
Tensions eased after President Volodymyr Zelensky said in November that it was “not the right time” for elections. But the matter appears to be far from over and has fueled a political conflict not seen in the country since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
However, one of the big driving forces behind the scandal is not Ukraine, but the United States.
The Ukrainian election debate is being driven in part by US leaders ahead of the country’s 2024 election, particularly by a small group within the Republican Party, said Olha Aivazovska, chair of the Opora election watchdog network.
She argued that some far-right Republicans were using the issue to justify their demand to block military aid to Ukraine.
And those voices are getting louder. As Donald Trump’s isolationist views gain more influence in the Republican Party, the issue of support for Ukraine is falling into US domestic politics and party divisions.
Although many Republicans support Ukraine, “this does not mean that the far-right wing of this party will not use this theme against Ukraine next year during the US presidential election,” Ms Aivazovska told the BBC.
They already do. Earlier this month, Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the Republican candidates for the presidential nomination, said that Ukraine “is not a model of democracy” and “is threatening not to hold elections this year unless the United States gives more money.”
Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham had those votes in mind when he said during his August visit to Kiev that Ukraine should hold presidential elections in 2024.
And President Zelensky understands that he needs to pay attention to this growing rhetoric coming from the US: the country is Ukraine’s main ally and its military aid is vital to fighting Russia’s invasion.
“There are several things that could divide US support for Ukraine,” Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian television last August. “One of them is the election, as far as I know there are voices against continued support in the Republican Party.”
Until recently, Zelensky had not directly rejected the elections. He listed all the challenges – such as security, legislation and funding – and added that he was “ready” and would run for a second term if the election was held in wartime.
In a more recent interview with Ukrainian television, Zelensky said he “would like to hold elections” within a year or whenever necessary.
Earlier this month, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Zelensky was “weighing the pros and cons” of holding elections during a war.
Even if martial law is changed to allow elections, there are many obstacles to holding a vote.
Security is the main thing. The displaced population is another problem.
“It is impossible to hold elections during a war when millions of our citizens are abroad or internally displaced,” said Olena Shulyak, MP and head of the ruling Servant of the People party.
Other challenges include damaged schools that are commonly used as polling stations, an outdated electoral register, limited martial law rights and lack of funding.
Experts agree that holding free and fair elections with a competitive political process is simply not possible under the current circumstances.
It is not surprising, then, that the idea of holding presidential elections is deeply unpopular in Ukraine. A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in November showed that more than 80 percent of respondents wanted elections to be held only after the war was over.
MPs from both the opposition and the ruling party have repeatedly argued that it is wrong to hold elections next year.
But President Zelensky’s ambiguous statements about the possibility of holding elections caused an internal reaction.
Opposition MPs and the media have begun to report that the authorities are preparing to hold presidential elections in 2024. Some politicians have even announced plans to run for president.
Speculation has grown that President Zelensky’s popularity will decline due to the impasse on the front line, and that he therefore wants to hold the 2024 elections as planned while his poll ratings are still high.
In an attempt to quell the rumours, the president gave a televised address in early November and said it was “not the right time for an election”.
“We must decide that now is the time of defense, the time of battle, on which the fate of the country and the people depends,” he said.
When will there be elections in Ukraine?
Alina Zagoruyko, MP and head of the parliamentary subcommittee on elections and referenda, claims that Volodymyr Zelensky will remain a legitimate president even after his term expires next spring.
Article 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that the acting head of state shall perform his duties until the inauguration of a newly elected president.
But if the war drags on much longer, then at some point “it may turn out to be a problem and we may have to explore the possibilities of holding elections even under such conditions,” Zagorujko said.
However, most leaders and experts agree that preparations for post-war elections should begin now.
Many villages and towns like Bakhmut or Avdiivka are in ruins. Most of their population is either dead or scattered across the country and beyond. The electoral infrastructure has been destroyed. Conducting elections in these areas will be extremely challenging even in peacetime.
Another problem is voters. Of Ukraine’s eight million refugees, many are unlikely to return home quickly even after the war ends.
So the authorities must agree with foreign governments to expand polling stations abroad, says Olena Shulyak.
“We need to discuss alternative ways of voting, such as postal or online voting. All of these things require changes in legislation.”
But MPs are reluctant to discuss these issues because such events are seen as preparations for wartime elections. Citizens immediately accuse these officials of treason. With frontline progress virtually at a standstill, the fear of a loss of national unity is growing stronger.
Most Ukrainian parties and political groups seem to agree that they cannot afford to plunge back into peacetime political disputes while still fighting Russia.
But the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be to maintain that consensus, in part because of the domestic politics of Ukraine’s Western partners.
Working on the post:
2023-11-29 20:00:00
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