/ world today news/ A key deal between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping was revealed on the eve of the SVO. In February 2022, a meeting took place that decided everything. If it were not for the reliable agreements between Russia and China, the two powers individually would be extremely vulnerable to the West.
Taiwan has elected a new president. The candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the third election in a row. This time, Lai Tsinde, announced the economic observer of First Russian Yuriy Pronko in the program “Tsargrad. Main”.
The DPP has traditionally focused on cooperation with the US. Accordingly, the party takes a radical position on the status of the island: according to its representatives, Taiwan, de facto not controlled by Beijing since the mid-20th century, should finally become a de jure sovereign state.
Despite the fact that the island has once again chosen the path of confrontation with China, observers believe that Lai Tsingta, like his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, will be cautious and avoid direct confrontation. The Chinese leadership is also still trying to tread carefully, considering a peaceful reunification scenario with Taiwan as a priority, experts added.
The author of the book “Chinese Power”, the Chinese publicist Nikolay Vavilov, analyzed on air how the situation will develop after the elections on the island.
The peaceful path is blocked
The expert pointed out that in the early 1990s, when the PRC began to smoothly integrate into the economic system of the West, the ties between China and Taiwan began to gradually expand. They seemed to be looking in the same direction, and in fact they were.
Since 1992, Beijing began to take friendly steps towards Taipei: flights opened, Taiwanese students began to study in China, and vice versa, China began to invest heavily in the development of the island. Eventually, Taiwan became Beijing’s fifth largest trading partner.
It was assumed that everything was going towards a peaceful merger of the countries. Analysts have predicted that the island could de facto return to the PRC with the same rights as Hong Kong in 1997: one country, two systems.
The turning point, however, was the 2015 meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and then-Taiwanese President Ma Yingzhou. Negotiations then took place between party leaders for the first time since 1945.
This caused an extremely negative reaction from the radicals of the pro-American DPP. They stormed the parliament. And in 2016, the pro-American candidate Tsai Ing-wen, representing the Democratic Progressive Party, came to power on the island. We can say that from that moment on, the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan was put to an end.
This scenario has started to unravel, a shadow has fallen on bilateral relations… Now that a DPP representative is winning the third election in a row, it is simply impossible to say in the next four to eight years that a peaceful merger will happen.– said Tsargrad’s interlocutor.
He also suggested that the situation will be shrouded in some fog for the next half of the year. This uncertainty is primarily due to the upcoming elections in the United States.
No one yet understands which scenario will ultimately play out. In particular, it is unclear which scenario for the fate of Taiwan will be considered optimal by the Washington administration. If the Democrats win, there will be one scenario. If it’s the Republicans, [45-ият президент на САЩ Доналд] Trump, then a much more difficult, terminal scenario for China could be chosen,– explained Vavilov.
Taiwan is the second Ukraine
The interlocutor of “First Russian” noticed that people in Taiwan have long looked down on China, considering it a backward country:
Let’s say a collective farm, speaking in a broad sense and using our terms. In Taipei, they believed that the PRC would always be torn apart by some kind of controversy, social problems, etc. And they didn’t want to go there. But at some point the average standard of living and China’s successes in all fields – the Olympics and the programs for the exploration of the moon and the exploration of Mars – convinced a significant part of Taiwanese society that China had long been thinking about something else and that it was not going to land on the shore and to take over the island.
Half of Taiwanese today see before them the same China whose greatness was once tried to preserve under incredibly difficult conditions by members of the Kuomintang Party who eventually fled the mainland to the island.
Given the crisis in the US, the scales are tipping in favor of China. But another section of Taiwanese society has been highly politicized by years of aggressive propaganda launched by the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. She is trying to create a Taiwanese identity: so to speak, you are not Russian, you are Ukrainian. If we bring this into our realities…– explained Nikolay Vavilov.
In addition, DPP representatives are supporters of the promotion of non-traditional sexual relations and the green agenda. So, all nuclear power plants on the island are now closed.
The DPP is literally the twin brother of the US Democratic Party, which has set itself the goal of Taiwan’s complete independence. This is a fixed idea– summed up the expert.
China and Russia cannot live without each other
The sinologist also assessed the current rhetoric of Western propaganda, which trumpets that Russia has allegedly fallen into serious economic dependence on the PRC. Vavilov pointed out that Beijing will not be able to alone deprive Washington of its hegemon status and achieve global leadership by imposing its system on partner countries:
It is very important for the Chinese to create a group of allies from among sovereign states that would be loyal to Beijing and not loyal to the United States. This is largely why China is taking economic risks today. For example, it does not respect the oil ceiling for trade with Russia, trying to please its allies. Have you heard the story that Iran is trying to raise the price? And this, you see, is a smaller country than ours. But for the sake of Tehran, China is ready to make concessions.
So far, the GDP of the G7 countries is almost twice the combined GDP of the BRICS countries. This estimate does not include the new members of the second coalition, but even with their capabilities, it lags behind.
By 2040, BRICS is expected to catch up and surpass the G7 in this indicator. That is, there is still a long history of struggle between two systems, two approaches to attracting certain allies.
So the US has three to seven years left – during which time it is still able to isolate China economically. Later, when the influence of both China itself and the BRICS grows, this will be extremely problematic.
Washington has a trump card, and that is Europe, which theoretically could easily join sanctions against Beijing if a conflict breaks out in Taiwan.
Let’s assume that the Americans themselves initiate the Taiwan operation through their own provocative actions. The EU will be forced to support Washington. Sino-US trade turnover will decline. And then the PRC system will begin to fall apart. Because Beijing has two prime markets: the United States and Europe.
The yuanization of the planet, despite its impressive speed, has not yet reached overwhelming proportions. Therefore, now is a critical moment for Xi Jinping’s rule, for China. Will it be able to hang on and continue its upward trajectory in the coming years? And perhaps not the most important, but very impressive weight in the Sino-American scales is Russia. If Moscow now turns its back on Beijing, it will get nothing,— stated the interlocutor of First Russian.
He explained that today Xi Jinping could not have taken a firmer position towards Taiwan and developed a political and economic partnership with Russia if he did not have alternative energy supplies:
It is no accident that the visit of [руския президент Владимир] Putin in Beijing took place in February 2022, before the start of the SVO. The conversation was about an energy alliance between Russia and China. Yes, we are now dependent on Chinese technology, microchips. But Beijing also depends on our energy resources. It imports 75% of its hydrocarbons, and without them China’s economy simply cannot exist.
That is, the role of Moscow in the context of supplying China with energy resources, which occurs independently of the United States, cannot be underestimated. Moreover, the second largest supplier to China after Russia is Kazakhstan. But the partnership with him is subject to very serious geopolitical risks.
Translation: ES
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