The danger of a fourth wave

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The admonition about caution is undoubtedly in place. In many places in the country, the infection is flourishing. In Hammerfest, the local authorities say that the spread of infection is out of control. Parts of the infection picture are linked to increased mobility and attachment around 17 May. A high and persistent level of infection increases the risk of mutants establishing and spreading.

The government is trying to reassure people who have so-called “reopening anxiety”. According to State Secretary Saliba Andreas Korkunc, the relief will not happen until it is justifiable. “People can be sure of that,” said the state secretary in the health ministry.

So simple is not it. Several medical professionals warn against the reopening. Infection control professor Bjørg Marit Andersen tells NTB that the reopening is not justifiable and that there is a danger of a fourth wave of infection. Andersen points out that the number of newly infected per day is stably high, without going down fast enough. Infection control professor Jørn Klein at the University of the Southeast warns against accepting a situation with high infection even though the number of inpatients is low.

Steinar Westin, professor of social medicine at NTNU, tells NTB that recent infection rates make him unsure of how justifiable the reopening is. He points out that assistant health director Nakstad has previously indicated that we must reduce the number of less than 200 infected on a national basis before we open up society. Westin points out that the infection rate last Friday was 714. In recent weeks, the infection rate according to FHI has been around 400-500 cases.

The key to a safe reopening is the scope of the vaccination. Today, approx. 30 percent of the population received the first dose. There is disagreement about the proportion required for the vaccine to be stronger than the virus. Estimates vary between 60 and 80 percent of the population.

Everyone understands the need to return to a more normal everyday life. But the price can be too high. A comprehensive reopening that must be reversed due to increased infection rates will be detrimental to both public health and the authorities’ reputation and trust. It is a few weeks until the population has significantly better protection through vaccination. Until then, it is right to proceed cautiously.

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