The Czech Republic needs new power plants. Nevertheless, the stream will be introduced after 2025 – Seznam Zprávy

Electricity generation from coal will end after 2030, or even earlier. Transmission system operator CEPS however, they must take into account both versions.

On Thursday, he presented two possible scenarios for the development of the Czech energy industry (MAF). He especially determines their path coalwhich will be used for electricity production to end either by the economy, because it stops paying, or by a political decision.

One of the analyses, which ČEPS calls the respondent scenario, assumes a gradual decline in coal resources. Beyond the horizon of 2030, burning coal according to this scenario will protect smaller ones heating plant and racing power plants. Production will gradually go from natural gasz biomass a renewable resources.

The second positive scenario is less optimistic, which envisages a complete shift away from coal in the energy sector. Power plants, heating plants and power plants will stop producing coal by the end of 2030. They will be replaced by a higher capacity of renewable resources, especially solar and wind power plants. At the same time, an increase in electricity consumption is expected due to electronic transport, industry and heating.

In the analysis, ČEPS does not deal with unregulated extraction from coal, which operators of coal-fired power plants warn against. The main players in the production of lignite electricity have previously warned that their sources may be closed due to the unfavorable economic situation in the following years, ie in 2025, 2026 or 2027. The This “supercritical” situation was presented by ČEPS in June, and even if it happened, according to him, the Czech Republic will be able to ensure safe delivery.

“For now, we’re looking at 2025, and while it looks like we could be operating well into January 2026, that’s just an expert estimate, which could change very quickly in such a volatile and unpredictable market,” she said. Gabriela Sáričková Benešováspokesperson for the group Seven.ento whom the power plants Chivalry a Take turns.

This would probably affect not only Sev.en, but also other operators of coal resources. “So if we don’t know now whether our power plants will still be running at the beginning of 2026, we know almost certainly that if nothing changes, there will be no coal reserves in the Czech Republic until 2030 ,” says Sáričková Benešová.

The question is whether the Czech Republic will have something to replace coal by 2030, as it will not have time to build new flexible sources, such as gas-fired power plants, within three years. “Therefore, the entire energy sector must be changed, which is already happening, and new, flexible sources must be implemented. But, in my opinion, there will be a serious lack of resources for storing electrical energy to create the necessary energy mix of renewable energy sources – battery storage, smaller rotating sources (probably gas), the core,” said chairman of the board of directors of the organization GROUP UP a Sokolovská coal mine Pavel Tomek.

If the domestic power industry were to move completely away from coal in the next three years, it would have to rely heavily on importing electricity from abroad. “In any case, it would be a mistake to rely only on imports, to safely move away from coal, it is necessary to build new sources, here I would emphasize in particular wind power plants, but also to ensure a smooth transition. of the heating industry,” says the energy specialist of the movement TO BE Jiří Koželouh.

The calculations show that new sources of electricity production must be added. According to MAF, the Czech Republic will be able to cope with the existing power plants until 2030, but after 2030 it will be necessary to increase the installed capacity of 1,600 MW, which is almost according to one Temelín block and one Dukovan block together. However, if there was a faster transition away from coal, it would be necessary to add 1900 MW to the energy mix, which is almost the same as the current Temelín.

“We are mainly talking about long-term gas sources with a possible transition to hydrogen. If we want to keep the level of reliability, we are talking about values ​​of up to 2000 MW of gas reserves by 2035. This is on the assumption that other types of reserves will be filled, regardless of whether it concerns photovoltaic, wind and, in the long term, nuclear sources,” said the vice-chairman of the ČEPS Board of Directors grandson of Svatopluk.

After 2030, the installed capacity of solar power plants should increase to 10.7 GW, compared to 5.6 GW in 2025. In 2035, their capacity should exceed 11.4 GW. With this, the place of electrical storage in batteries is also growing, which should reach a capacity of 2.4 GW before the beginning of the 30s. The output of wind power plants and other renewable sources is growing and will continue to grow.

“With the large planned development of renewable sources in the Czech Republic and in neighboring countries, flexible sources will play a key role in stabilizing the grid, reducing negative electricity prices and balancing green energy production. And this is both in the conservative position, which for the year 2040 measures with a battery capacity of 5.5 GWh and a power of 2.8 GW, and also in an advanced position, operating with a capacity of 7.6 GWh and a power of 3.8 GW, ” says the director of the Association for energy storage Jan Fousek.

The installed capacity of coal-fired power plants will gradually decrease. From 6.9 GW in 2025, it will decrease to 3.4 GW in five years, if coal production ends sooner, these power plants would only be 932 MW. In 2035, in a more advanced scenario, they will be only 374 MW, but the advanced scenario is already planning to close completely.

According to Koželouh, the most likely option is that after 2030, coal will provide very little power. “Personally, I think we have to count on the fact that coal-fired power plants will end by 2030, and in the end only the Ledvice power plant will run,” he thinks, referring to coal mining for heating plants in the vicinity.Bill me.

However, the results of both scenarios after 2035 show problems with resource adequacy, or the balance between electricity consumption and production from available sources, i.e. production in the Czech Republic and export or import of electricity .

There will be problems with lack of production even if a higher amount of electricity is imported. According to ČEPS, the Czech Republic, which is currently a net exporter of electricity, should already become an importer after 2025.

ČEPS points out, however, that countries such as Germany or France, from which we should import electricity, may have a smaller surplus, and therefore a smaller amount for export. Electricity consumption will increase due to green hydrogen production.

The import should also help prevent possible shortages at certain times of the year. ČEPS expects that there will be more hours when the production of resources together with the introduction of domestic consumption electricity cannot. Although until now this value was equal to zero, after 2035 it should reach 8.7 to 10.3 hours per year.

“We are responsible for the import of electricity, including the provision of power balancing services from Germany. If this idea is not fulfilled, the question is whether we have another situation,” said Tomek.

However, according to the operator of the transmission system, the number of hours of non-supply, which does not mean a blackout, would exceed the tolerable limit of seven hours a year in the middle of the 1930s. “It is certainly not a disaster, because it is a scene and we have some time to solve it. But it certainly cannot be a goal,” Koželouh reassures him.

For ČEPS, an increase in imports would also mean the strengthening of the cross-border transmission system, which ČEPS is negotiating with operators of nearby distribution networks. “Our calculations show that it is necessary to ensure sufficient capacity of distribution networks. One of our tasks as ČEPS is to invest in ensuring sufficient system capacity, whether within the internal or cross-border system,” says Vnouček.

However, according to ČEPS calculations, the price of electricity should decrease in the coming years. From an average of 106 euros per MWh, the price per MWh could drop to 85 euros in 2030. However, in 2035, the situation reverses and growth occurs due to the lack of controllable resources, leading to higher wholesale electricity prices in winter when renewable generation weakens. This leads to a higher average price.

In a less optimistic scenario, however, the price is five euros higher due to higher electricity consumption and faster decarbonisation.

However, this is only the price of electricity, which is only a part of the total price that customers will pay in the end. The rest is the regulated part. “A process is underway in all European countries where the ratio between the price of electricity and regulated components is gradually changing and the share of regulated components is increasing ,” said Vnouček.