The Cycle of Retaliation in the Israel-Palestine Conflict: A Historical Analysis

De-escalation has not worked for fourteen centuries

Palestinians buy and sell at an open market in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 9, 2024, ahead of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group (AFP).

The Iranian theocracy is ready with a retaliatory attack and other countries are ready to retaliate. The sandbox will forever remain a powder keg. Who started is regularly forgotten on one side, while the other side celebrates the first battle Banu Qaynuqa from 624. A case of honor killing in which a Jew lost his life. We have been piling retaliation upon retaliation for fourteen centuries.

The international response to this cycle of violence is monotonous and overtaken by reality. Even Muammar Gaddafi In March 2008, asked the painful question why Gaza Strip did not become a stable state in the period 1948 to 1967. The Arabs were left alone, but their mutual quarrels blocked the development of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank into independent states.

The later attempt in 2005 began with a total settler withdrawal and the last free elections in the Gaza Strip. They were no longer oppressed by Egypt or Israel, but within a year by Hamas. That attempt ended October 7, 2023. The hatred and cruelty, aimed directly at children, young women and the elderly from the Jewish civilian population, proved that peace is far away.

Israel demands the immediate release of children, women and the elderly who have been held hostage for seven months. Hamas wants to exchange them for hundreds of murderers, so you can already see a small difference in priorities. The only question is whether there is still plenty of hostages be alive to exchange. Those who do not wish to repeat history will need to know this, a small anthology:

A Palestinian vendor prepares falafel at an open market in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 9, 2024, ahead of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group (AFP).

The British Mandate was created in 1920, when the League of Nations divided the conquered Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire had fought on the German side in World War I (PDF). They got advice from the Germans how to commit battles and genocides. The Ottoman expansion between 1299 and 1683 inspired the Lebensraum Theory, which had to be dismantled.

The Ottoman Empire had Sunni Islam as its state religion, its victims were mainly Christians who lived in the road. The Ottoman Empire had genocides of millions just before its conquest and partition ArmeniansCoptic Greeks and Assyrians (PDF). Genocide is a form of this social engineering. These genocides had a religious flavor.

The Turkish part then continued with one genocide on Kurds. These four population groups existed longer than the Ottoman Empire and also existed longer than Islam. These genocides were the general repetition of the German conquests in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe together with the later Holocaust. It shows how thin the line is between religious fanaticism and fascism.

After the Second World War, the British mandate was given a three-state solution. This created the Kingdom of Jordan, an independent, reasonably stable Arab state. On the other side of the river, a multicultural society emerged, where millions of mostly Muslim Arabs can speak freely, have the right to vote and fight along in the Israeli army.

The pain is in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. These areas regained their autonomy at the same time as Israel. They did not have much time because in 1948 Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen tried to destroy the Jewish state. The Gaza Strip and the West Bank became a kind of no man’s land, not part of Egypt, Jordan or Israel.

I would like to ask everyone who dreams about peace, ceasefires and two-state solutions to think back to 1948 – 1967. Why did the Gaza Strip and the West Bank fail to become independent states with the help of the Arab League? Here a cruel Libyan dictator put his finger on the sore spot, without an answer we cannot continue.

The second attempt to destroy the Jewish state in 1967 lasted only six days. Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon again attacked Israel from all sides. Israel hit back harder this time and took military control of, among other things, the Gaza Strip, West Bank and Syrian Golan Heights. No man’s land without an effective government became occupied territory.

Negotiations took place between 1967 and 2005 to return those areas. Then something historic happened, all the settlers left the Gaza Strip and elections were held! Hamas won this, and it was the last election there. Why did the Gaza Strip fail to become an independent, peaceful state between 2005 and 2023? Why did it remain a military dictatorship?

Muammar Gaddafi stated in 2008 that Arabs cannot get along with other Arabs. You literally see this at the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. High fences, together with a gigantic excavated trench against smuggling tunnels and tank movements. The Gaza Strip was once part of Egypt, then independent, and now closed and divested.

This humanitarian disaster must of course be ended, the only question is how. A lull in fighting, armistice or peace are words that no longer have any meaning in that region after fourteen centuries. What are negotiations with an unelected terrorist organization even worth? Any form of military rest provides temporary relief along with guaranteed escalation.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that you more than six trillion can spend to start with religiously motivated failed military dictatorships, and then end up where you started. Afghanistan is back in the hands of the Taliban. Within the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu’s government is trying to do this on a smaller scale. Unfortunately, imposing democracy on a population is one thing a contradiction in terms.

Of sixth stroke om Rafah will not be the end, but the only minuscule chance for a new beginning.