The epidemic curve has begun its descent, even if the number of victims continue to worry. Independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation in the week November 25-December 1 confirms a decrease in new cases (165,879 against 216,950 in the previous seven days), against an “inexplicable reduction” of 13.6% of swabs performed: 672,794, almost 106,000 less than the previous week. Currently positives (779.945 against 798.386) and the positive / cases tested ratio (24.7% against 27.9%) decreased. “The containment measures – he explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – are reflected in the curves of currently positive, hospitalizations and intensive care, which seem to have passed the peak and started the downward phase, while the death curve continues to rise “with over 5thousand victims in a week (5.055).
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The hospitals
Also the occupancy rate of the beds in the hospital begins to go down. Patients with symptoms in the ordinary wards were 32.811, 1,766 less than the previous week (-5.1%), while the most seriously ill in intensive care are 3.663, with a decrease of 153 (-4%). However, the number of Covid patients remains beyond the alert threshold 40% in medical departments in 15 Regions and 30% in intensive care units in 16 Regions. And where the employment rates are much higher, Cartabellotta points out, “patients with Sars-CoV-2 encroach on other departments, limiting the possibility of treating patients with other pathologies and causing the postponement of other services, including surgery” .
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The effects of the “color system”
Exactly one month after the signature of the Dpcm of 3 November, the Gimbe Foundation has calculated the impact of the measures introduced «color system». In particular, five indicators were examined – Rt index, percentage change in new cases, change in currently positive per 100,000 inhabitants, change in the number of hospitalizations and intensive care – over the period from 6 November (date of introduction of the measures) to November 28 (last day before the relaxation in some Regions). The analysis shows that “Rt aside, there are no tangible results in three weeks since the introduction of the measures, ”he explains Renata Gili by Gimbe. And he warns: «Fading the color of the Regions too soon risks determining a rise first in the Rt index, then in the epidemic curve and therefore in hospitalization rates. In other words, with the circulation of the virus still too high to resume effective contact tracing and with the pressure on hospitals very high, the first timid signs of improvement risk being thwarted by the relaxation of the measures ».
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“Maintain the penalty line”
«A few hours after the signing of the new Christmas Dpcm – concludes Cartabellotta – we ask the government to maintain the penalty line to avoid a new one inversion of the contagion curve and increase the already intense pressure on hospitals where health professionals are on the verge of exhaustion. We also ask to review the timing to reduce the color intensity of the Regions: the data confirm that two weeks of “observation” are insufficient to evaluate a tangible improvement on the contagion curve and, above all, on hospitalization rates. In this sense, the hypothesis of a “Italy all yellow” in a short time it is more a desired policy that an epidemic control strategy “
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December 3, 2020 (change December 3, 2020 | 10:30 am)
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