China-Singapore Jingwei, October 16 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in September 2024. China-Singapore Jingwei found, in the September, that the CPI of 26 areas increased year on year.
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website
CPI increased year on year in 26 provinces
The seven successive declines of Ningxia
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in September 2024, the national CPI remained unchanged month-on-month and increased by 0.4% year-on-year, rising for eight months after each other.
China-Singapore Jingwei found that the number of regions with year-on-year CPI increases on September 31 was slightly down from the previous month. Among them, 26 provinces increased year-on-year, 1 province remained unchanged, and 4 provinces decreased year-on-year The number of provinces with “increase, flatness or decrease” on the last month, 29, 1, and 1 respectively.
In particular, 14 provinces including Xinjiang, Anhui, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Hubei, Gansu, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Hainan, and Chongqing have experienced higher growth rates than the national level, among which Anhui has been above 1%. for three consecutive months, the growth rate of Jilin, Zhejiang, and Hunan was the same as the national rate; , Shanghai, Tibet, Guangdong, and Ningxia were lower than the national level.
In addition, from the point of view of increase and decrease, in September, only 4 provinces, including Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Hainan, and Hebei, had year-on-year CPI data that expanded the compared to August, with Shaanxi having the largest increase of 0.3 percentage points; Year-on-year data fell in 23 provinces back compared to August, and Qinghai had the largest decrease at 0.8 percentage points.
Feng Lin, executive director of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, analyzed that mainly due to the rapid decline in travel and other service prices and energy prices, the CPI increase in September was at low and slightly below market expectations. The year-on-year increase in the prices of vegetables, fruit and other food items continued to be the main driver supporting the continued increase in the CPI that month.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking ahead to the price movement in the next phase, institutions generally expect to continue to recover moderately.
Zhang Jingjing’s team at China Merchants Macro expects the CPI to improve month-on-month in October, but the year-on-year increase in CPI may be limited, and the overall increase will remain slow.
Feng Lin said that with the decline in the CPI base in the same period last year and the release of long-term consumer demand during the National Day holiday, especially the introduction of a package of policies gradually, that it will have a certain stimulating effect on him. In the early stage, industrial consumer goods will have more traction on the overall price level. In the short term, inflation will continue to be low, and the CPI will struggle to rise above 1% year on year before the end of the year.
Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist of Everbright Securities, said taking into account the low base effect, the rebound in international oil prices, and the possible increase in pork prices led by the peak season, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in which the fourth quarter is expected to pick up.
Founder Securities’ macro report believes there is still pressure for a short-term price recovery, but there are also two positive indicators. First, macroeconomic policies have been more proactive since September, which is expected to boost domestic demand. Second, both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, with volume taking precedence over price. If it continues, it will lead to future price improvements . (APP Jingwei China-Singapore)
(Editor: Wen Jing)
2024-10-16 01:39:00
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