The covid semaphore, the set of risk indicators that measures the evolution of the pandemic in each Community, Gives Aragon a break in the occupation of plant beds and positivity rate –The number of tests that confirm covid cases out of the total that are practiced– after the critical weeks experienced in October and November. The Community maintains an extreme risk in terms of ucis and cumulative incidence per 100,000 inhabitants at seven and 14 days. However, it is getting closer and closer to the values that would allow it to leave behind the aggravated level 3 alert and settle on a level 3 to dry that would make the closure of non-essential activity disappear at 8:00 p.m. and would facilitate the reopening of gyms with limitations and the interior of cafes, bars and restaurants at 25%.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, corresponding to last Friday, eleven communities and the autonomous city of Melilla are still at extreme risk. Only Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Ceuta and Murcia are somewhat better (high risk), while Galicia is at a medium level and the Canary Islands, at a low level.
Aragon maintains three of the five benchmark indicators (cumulative incidence at seven days, at 14, positivity rate, percentage of plant beds and ICU beds) at extreme risk. However, this could change in a matter of days, as the cumulative incidence continues to decline week after week as a result of the strong restrictions implemented by the governments of Spain and Aragon.
At the end of October, when up to 1,345 daily infections were reached, the Community exceeded 1,120 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days and 580 in seven, numbers that have plummeted to a third.
At the moment, the first indicator stands at 302.66, a value very close to 250 that would allow it to change the level. The same happens with the seven-day one: it is at 147.12 and if it falls below 125, the risk will go from extreme to high. The Minister of Health, Sira Repollés, and the Director General of Public Health, Francisco Javier Falo, assured in one of their last public appearances that Aragón the alert level would drop the moment several of these indicators fell to a medium or high level. These days the evolution of the ucis is looked at with special attention, a key factor in deciding whether or not to relax the restrictions.
The occupancy of intensive care beds by coronavirus patients has fallen by around 12% compared to November 18, the day when they reached the worst records of this third wave with 122 admissions. Currently they are around 39%, a value that continues to be “worrying”, as recognized by the Minister of the Presidency, Mayte Pérez, in the last plenary session of the Cortes.
To begin to propose a more flexible capacity and hours, the figure would have to be around 35% or 30%, as Repollés has reiterated in recent weeks. The criteria of the Ministry are even stricter, since the change from extreme risk to high risk is not considered until it drops below 25%. So much so that a dozen communities are still at the worst level, with La Rioja (46.6%) and Aragón at the top of the table.
The contagions that may occur on this bridge of the Constitution – which causes “panic” to the Government of Aragon, as admitted by the regional president, Javier Lambán, due to what may occur – will be decisive to see if the trend continues to decline or rebound. The fear is that what happened behind the bridge and the ‘no parties’ of the Pilar will repeat itself, moment in which the highest peak of infections of the entire pandemic was reached and deaths shot up to 191 in seven days, a pothole from which the Community has not yet recovered.
The data for this coming week will also allow us to analyze the effect that the lifting of the perimeter confinement of the three capitals has had.
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