The Covid-19 Vaccine Market: Winners and Losers in the Business

In the Covid-19 vaccine business there are clear winners. And many losers. Four companies have practically taken over 90% of the vaccine market –in units– since the start of the pandemic, although with different strategies. The British AstraZeneca leads the distribution from the end of 2020 to July 2023 due to its non-profit product Vaxzevria. For their part, the Chinese Sinovac and Sinopharm benefit from the gigantic demand from China, where Western alternatives have not entered. And finally, Pfizer has achieved the greatest commercial success, with close to 80,000 million euros in revenue, thanks to its dominant position in the US, Europe and much of the world. Another 20 companies, including Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, share the remaining 10% of the administered doses.

The most administered vaccine in the world to date is that of AstraZeneca, which managed to put one of the first versions on the market, together with Pfizer and Moderna. In the world, 3,263 million doses of the product from the Anglo-Swedish laboratory have been administered (see graph), which means reaching a 24.6% market share, according to data provided to Cinco Días by the British consultancy Airfinity, a benchmark in the sector. pharmacist in these measurements.

AstraZeneca’s great market has been Asia, where 2,465 million of its viral vector have been administered (75% of its production). However, it never produced a great benefit for the laboratory, and for its partner the University of Oxford, since from the beginning it pointed out that it would be a non-profit activity while the pandemic lasted. Currently, in fact, it hardly brings sales. In the first half of the year, these revenues from Vaxzevria fell by 98.2%, from 1,540 million to 28 million.

Matt Linley, Airfinity’s director of analysis and forecasting, recalls that the AstraZeneca alternative was used “significantly in low-income countries and, importantly, in India, which encompass huge populations.” Most of these doses were administered as the first injection and, in the booster demand, it decreased. “Although Pfizer was the most favored for booster doses, uptake was very low and it was administered mainly in higher-income countries,” he points out.

The case of Pfizer, together with its German partner BioNTech, is the one with the greatest success at the business level thanks to its messenger RNA alternative. It has distributed around 2,690 million doses since the end of 2020, as detailed in Airfinity data. In this case, 758 million arrived in Europe, 457 million in the US, 342 million in Latin America, 200 million in Africa and 899 million in Asia. Although the triumph for its shareholders is, above all, its current dominant position in the market and also for not having renounced the profit motive.

Last year, at the height of immunization worldwide, the laboratory that has Albert Bourla as CEO billed 100,330 million dollars (92,600 million euros), becoming the first pharmaceutical company to achieve it after two years in which it achieved More than double your income. In 2021, its option called Comirnaty obtained 34,445 million euros in sales, to which it added 35,405 million in 2022 and another 4,552 million until June of this year (representing a year-on-year drop of 79.4%). Only in benefits, it reached 53,750 million adding 2021 and 2022. As the administration of vaccines worldwide plummeted, the challenge for the company now lies precisely in how to remain number one in the sector by looking for new drugs.

uncertainties

However, Bourla acknowledged in July at a conference with investors and analysts that there are many uncertainties in the market. In May, the pharmaceutical company reached an agreement with the European Commission to space the delivery of doses until 2026. “The greatest uncertainty is the vaccination rates. I think the market share is pretty well established. Vaccination rates are what we will see in the fall ahead,” she assured.

What Pfizer has achieved is to keep practically the entire booster dose market, much smaller in size than that of 2021 and 2022. At Airfinity they calculate that 65% of those administered until May in the US were from Pfizer and 94% in Europe. “In January, we established our estimate that approximately 100 million doses of COVID-19 would be administered in the US this year, of which we estimate that Pfizer would capture 60% of the market share,” Bourla revealed. to analysts.

In the case of the gigantic Chinese market, by number of inhabitants, it has been taken over by vaccines from local companies. The most used so far has been Sinovac, with 2,975 million doses administered. 87% injected in Asia, but with a relevant market in Latin America (332 million vials). Thanks to its version, one of the earliest in response, the laboratory obtains a 22.5% share.

The other alternative from Beijing has been that of Sinopharm, of which 2,609 million doses (19.7% of the total) have been administered worldwide. This case is very similar to that of its local rival, since 89.4% of the units were distributed in Asia, although in this case abroad it has weighed above all shipments to Africa (177 million).

Taken together, Airfinity data indicates that 13,249 million doses have been administered by some thirty companies. Although beyond AstraZeneca, Sinovac, Pfizer and Sinopharm few companies have a relevant distribution.

One of them is the American Moderna, one of the pioneers. According to data from the British consultancy, the biotech has distributed 857 million units. 34% of them arrived in North America and 33% in Asia. In Europe it has distributed 176 million. This company partnered with the Spanish laboratory Rovi, which fills and finishes the vials and exports them from Madrid to a large part of the world.

The losers

Among the losers in this battle to provide a solution to immunization against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants is a long list of companies. Some of them very relevant, such as Sanofi (and its partner GSK), a vaccine giant that failed in the investigation and that, finally, his version has come too late. Other companies, even getting a vaccine, their figures have been much more modest, such as the case of Johnson & Johnson and Novavax or almost irrelevant such as Valneva. Another that was initially considered in 2020 that could be a pioneer in a version of messenger RNA, the German Curevac, did not even obtain a health authorization to market.

Among the versions used in the world is Sputnik (from the Gamaleya Center), of which 300 million doses have been distributed. Also the Indian Covaxin (from Bahrat). Countries with closed economies such as Cuba have distributed three (Abdala and two versions of Soberana) and Iran has also applied three of its own, according to Airfinity.

A declining business in 2023 as booster doses are reduced

Drop. So far this year, the business of large laboratories has declined sharply as the administration of booster doses has lost weight. Pfizer has left 79.4% of the turnover in the first semester; in Moderna another 79.7%; Novavax yields 56.8%; BioNTech 94.8%, and AstraZeneca has lost almost all its activity (98.2% lower). The case of Johnson & Johnson is the only one in which its figures have improved, 3% more (see graph).

Autumn. It is expected that in the second semester, and especially from autumn, the sales figures may improve compared to those of the first semester, due to the fact that a rebound in booster injections is expected from the beginning of autumn and the arrival of winter. Thus, Novavax expects revenue at the end of the year of between 1,300 and 1,500 million, for example. Moderna, in its case, plans to bill between 6,000 and 8,000 million. “Product sales range is primarily driven by the size of the US Covid market in Fall 2023, which is dependent on vaccination rates and is likely to be 50 to 100 million doses,” the company reported. a few weeks ago.

Hyper. The one of which there is no trace is of the Spanish vaccine from the Girona Hipra laboratory, authorized in March, which also awaits its immunization asset starting in autumn. In total, 13 EU countries have secured the right to purchase 250 million units. Although at the moment, it is known that only the Spanish Government has acquired 3.2 million doses. The laboratory has also negotiated with Malaysia, other countries in Southeast Asia and they hope to take their version to Latin America and the Middle East.

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2023-08-31 03:15:00
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