However, the ongoing trial could complicate the Castle campaign for ANO president Andrej Babiš, accused of subsidy fraud, if he embarks on it.
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“The public has been divided for a long time. Andrej Babiš supporters believe the interpretation that this is a political trial and a” target “, while opponents expect him to be condemned. I would say he will not have much influence on the municipal elections. . It could have an impact on the presidential elections. In order for Andrej Babiš to succeed in the second round of the presidential elections, it would have to change the opinion of a significant part of the people who today perceive him negatively. Because 30 percent of voters who, according to polls, they have the ANO movement, they don’t need it in the second round, it’s not enough for them. And the judicial process won’t help them win voters, “Mlejnek commented on the situation in Novinky.
My father violated my basic human rights, Andrej Babiš Jr. told in court.
thriller
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Babiš, in his opinion, will not decide on his candidacy for the Castle according to the course of the court, but according to a public opinion poll. If his conclusion is that he has no chance of winning the second round of elections, then he will not participate in them.
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Babiš will announce the decision on 28 October.
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What Andrej Babiš really doesn’t want is to be involved in an election that he will lose
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Politologist Miloš Gregor of the Masaryk University of Brno also does not expect the Babiš trial to have an impact on the outcome of the municipal or senate elections, which will be held next Friday and Saturday. According to him, in small towns people vote for those they know personally and party membership is almost indifferent to them, in big cities the vast majority of voters already have an opinion on Babiš and the ANO movement, and the process in course will not change it.
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The process would harm hesitant voters
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“His supporters will continue to stand behind Andrej Babiš, his opponents are only getting confirmation that he belongs to the court,” Gregor told Novinkám. “The information heard before the court is not new. What is new is only the details. But it does not change the merits of the matter. It is an unfortunate thing for Andrej Babiš if he decides to run for the post of head of state. – voting in the classroom is not pleasant. It would certainly come back to him in the debates and even the opposing candidates would refer to it. It would certainly be something that would damage him even among hesitant voters “, he added.
In a duel with Babiš, Pavel would have won. Support for Neruda is growing
Presidential Elections
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According to Gregor, if there is something Andrej Babiš really doesn’t want, it is to be involved in the elections he will lose. “He would lose the aura of a successful politician who is successful. He could then embark on a journey like (former Slovak Prime Minister) Robert Fico and it could be the beginning of his political downfall of him,” he concluded.
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Political scientist Jan Bureš assumes that the result of the municipal and senate elections will help Babiš decide on the presidential elections. If ANO fails, Babiš’s ambitions will cool down and vice versa. “Of course, there may also be a motivation for obtaining immunity so that the sentences do not apply to him,” he stressed.
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According to Bureš, however, the court information reaching the public is unclear. Society is divided between those who believe Babiš and those who don’t. “And even after the verdict, people’s opinions, I’m afraid, will not change. If the court condemns Babiš, his fans will not accept such a sentence. On the contrary, if he is released, Babiš’s opponents will not accept him,” he thinks. Bureš.
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To some extent, however, the Babiš trial can activate its supporters and strengthen its core of voters. “I also think that the performance of Babiš’s son helps Babiš the elder. Because the older generation can feel offended by a son attacking his father in public. Regardless of what Babiš the younger says,” Bureš noted.
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Marketing expert Karel Pluhař agrees that the court will not influence the municipal and senate elections. “The whole Sparrow’s Nest case is already well known to the public and the ongoing trial will only remind you of that. Also, the court will enter the next stage after the election. ANO supporters and Andrej Babiš fans are hardly interested in the outcome. and people who would not have voted for ANO anyway will react stronger, “he told Novinkám.
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“Furthermore, big politics only moves municipal elections to larger cities such as Prague, Brno, Ostrava or Pilsen. The smaller the municipality, the more important the personalities on the candidate list and how they have contributed to the improvement of life in the surrounding environment. The influence on the second round of the Senate elections may be a bit greater, but ANO has no noticeable results, “added Pluhař.
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According to Pluhar, whether the court can influence Babiš’s decision-making process regarding the presidential elections depends on its course. “And also about how Andrej Babiš himself will cope with the strong pressure. The process is not just about the Sparrow’s Nest, but also about complex family relationships,” he concluded.
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