Few observers expect Zambia’s election to be fair. Many people fear what will happen afterwards.
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Before Thursday’s election, President Edgar Lungu has arrested political opponents and shut down opposition media. Lungu has deployed soldiers to keep order. The direct reason is that two of his party colleagues were killed by political opponents. Several provinces report a lot of violence at election campaign events.
The US embassy in Lusaka has announced that they are following closely. David Young at the embassy says Zambia Reports that the United States is ready to impose financial sanctions on individuals.
Zambia is close to a “human rights crisis”, according to the human rights organization Human Rights Watch. A month ago concluded Amnesty International immediately.
A “textbook in election fraud”
Many media outlets that follow the election closely believe that this year’s election is the most important since 1991. Then Kenneth Kaunda had to relinquish power after ruling the country since 1964.
Since then, Zambia’s democracy has worked better than in several of its neighboring countries. Presidents have lost elections and handed over power to the winner. Now the fear is growing that Lungu is leading the country in the wrong direction.
Many researchers believe that this year’s election will show whether democracy still works, or whether democracy has derailed under Lungu’s leadership.
The magazine The Economist writes that the governing party “must have read a textbook in election fraud”. The leading opposition candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, has been prevented from holding events during the election campaign. The government’s explanation is infection control considerations. The same rules do not apply to the president.
Deep economic crisis
Hakainde Hichilema has a background as a business manager. He claims that this knowledge is absolutely necessary for the country in the coming years. Zambia is facing a deep economic crisis.
Zambia’s foreign debt has risen sharply in recent years and is now at $ 12 billion. It is 120 percent of the country’s national product.
Last year, the country failed to repay a $ 3 billion loan. according to Reuters between 30 and 40 per cent of central government revenue is used to service the debt.
Lungu has long raged against the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which demands economic reforms in the country. Without an agreement with the IMF, it could be difficult for Zambia to service the debt.
Although corruption is a growing problem, many of the money borrowed has benefited most people. During the election campaign, Lungu constantly reminds of all the new roads, health stations and airports. The news agency Bloomberg writes that this “success story” could be the president’s biggest problem in the election.
Young Zambians in particular experience that the government debt becomes a great burden they must carry on. The mismanagement has led to inflation of 25 per cent. At the same time, the currency is falling in value. Last year, the national product fell for the first time since 1998.
At the same time, the country is Africa’s second largest exporter of copper. 70 percent of the export revenue comes from the mines. According to Bloomberg, many international mining companies are reluctant to continue investing in Zambia. They fear the unstable policies of Lungu.
Hichilema claims that his business background makes him understand the problems. He will negotiate a new agreement with the IMF and pursue a more business-friendly policy.
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