The countdown to the end of the mandate of the Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh, at the end of July
The countdown began in Lebanon to the end of the term of the governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh, on the 31st of this month, and he is one of the longest-serving central bank governors in the world, after he held his position since 1993, and that without deciding the fate of his successor, in light of the political dispute over the scenario. It must be followed, while the country suffers from a vacancy in the first presidency and is run by a caretaker government, that is, with limited powers.
And while the most likely scenario remains, until now, the first deputy Salameh, Wasim Mansouri, to assume the position of Governor of the Banque du Liban, until a new president is elected for the country, a new government is formed, and an authentic ruler is appointed, the four deputies of the Governor of the Banque du Liban, including Mansouri, threatened, in a statement yesterday, to take steps to understand Lebanon. It includes resignation, when they stressed in their statement “the need to appoint a new governor pursuant to Article 18 of the Monetary and Credit Law as soon as possible, otherwise we will be forced to take the action that we deem appropriate for the public interest.”
The possibilities are increasing for Salama to be appointed as an advisor to the Central Bank in the event that he leaves office, which raises questions about the post-Salama stage, the monetary policy that will be followed, and the fate of his recent measures, especially after the 2019 crisis, especially the banking platform, which did not gain the approval of all the ruler’s deputies. .
In the context, the chief economist of the “Byblos Bank” group, Nassib Ghobril, tells Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that many scenarios have come to light about who will assume the position of Salameh after his term ends in late July, including the appointment of an authentic ruler who takes the oath before the Council of Ministers. Collectively, another opinion emerged by appointing a judicial guard over the Banque du Liban, and other opinions that all fell, especially in light of the presidential vacancy, and the presence of a caretaker government, incomplete with powers.
On the other hand, Ghobril does not see that the Central Council will bring about radical changes after the end of Salameh’s mandate in terms of monetary policy, until the reactivation of public institutions, the completion of constitutional requirements by electing a president for the republic, forming a new government, appointing an original ruler for the Banque du Liban, and completing the agreement with the International Monetary Fund. .
Likewise, with regard to a banking platform, Ghobril excludes its cancellation, but “some procedures may be modified or changed in it in terms of withdrawals of public sector employees who receive their salaries in dollars according to its prices, or in terms of dollar purchases by companies or citizens,” noting that “The International Monetary Fund did not object to banking, on the contrary, it wants it to be more transparent and for the platform price to be the reference price in the market.”
As for the exchange rate on the black market, about which information began to spread stating that it “flyed” after the end of Salama’s term, Ghobril says that the exchange rate on the black market is non-transparent, unofficial and not subject to any control. And the demand from across the borders and the import bill, which amounted to 19 billion dollars last year. In practice, there may be parties trying to exploit this station to try to speculate on the exchange rate, but this comes from less speculation when talking about the fate of the exchange rate, up or down.
For her part, Dina Abu Zour, a lawyer in the “Depositors Association,” told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that there will be major or radical changes in the policy of the Banque du Liban in the next stage, especially in light of the failure to elect a new president for the country and the formation of a new government, which means the continuation of the reality. existing case.
Abu Zour considers that the next monetary policy and the fate of circulars and procedures will appear according to the policy of the first deputy ruler in the event that he takes over the position of the Governor of the Banque du Liban and the Central Council, and we have learned that the work will be as a group that takes decisions, but it is expected that the same approach will be followed until a new ruler is appointed, and he will try The four deputies maintain what Salameh has done, without risking the disintegration of the Central Bank, because this exposes the rest of the financial policies followed by the state, both in the past and the practices in force, especially in the recent period, which the ruler’s deputies will not tolerate.
As for the “money exchange”, Abu Zour says that it is an illegal platform, and we do not know the legal framework on the basis of which it was established, and Salama took charge of it directly and was like a “maestro” for it, and its fate is also deduced according to the policy of the ruler’s deputies.
2023-07-07 06:34:02
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