At Dagsrevyen on Tuesday, Deputy Director of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad was invited as a guest, to talk about China going from a zero covid strategy for three years to major corona relief, almost overnight. Presenter Petter Oulie-Hauge’s last question is as follows:Could this be a step towards controlling this virus on a worldwide basis?»
Then Nakstad replied the following:
«It is very difficult to live in a country without a strategy when the rest of the world is still spreading the virus. There will be a winter spread of this virus for many years to come, regardless. In that sense, it can be said, globally, that it is an advantage that different countries reach the same level and that people’s immunity is built through vaccination and that people have gotten sick. So this virus will eventually calm down a bit and stop changing so much. Then this will eventually become a winter phenomenon, like the flu. Everyone benefits from us getting there as quickly as possible, but we’re not there yet.“, where is it.
The background to the interview with Nakstad is that China’s population of 1.4 billion is moving from very tight infection control restrictions to major relief, after authorities made a sharp U-turn in the wake of several demonstrations. It has been estimated that 80-90 percent of China’s population will be infected with the virus over time, and 60 percent will be infected in the first wave of infection within one to three months in the future.
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Nettavisen asked Nakstad whether “releasing the infection” in China could be the key to ending the pandemic.
– For covid-19 to become a disease that no longer spreads like a pandemic, but like a seasonal virus, we depend on good population immunity worldwide. Enhanced immunity in China therefore plays an important role for the immunity of the global population, the deputy director of health replies in an email.
– If we ignore China’s authoritarian policy, should they have done like Norway and other countries and “released the infection” much sooner?
– The coronavirus is still spreading in most countries in repeated waves, even in Norway, so I don’t think the increase in immunization in China in the coming months represents a delay in the final phase of the pandemic. We don’t yet know when the coronavirus will stabilize as a seasonal virus, but it will likely happen gradually beyond 2023 and 2024, Nakstad says.
More discoveries
A sharp increase in infections has already been recorded in China after the coronavirus emergency, but the country’s hospitals do not appear to have been fully prepared. Several emergency departments are said to be overcrowded, and people have been queuing for hours outside in the winter cold. Beijing local authorities said on Monday that more than 22,000 patients visited the city’s hospitals on Sunday. That’s 16 times more than a week ago.
– The rapid spread of the epidemic in Beijing is still ongoing, a spokesman for the city’s health authorities, Li Ang, told a press conference.
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Immunologist and professor of medicine, Anne Spurkland, agrees with Nakstad that it is not possible to keep China as an “isolated island” that does not have the virus spreading, since it is already present everywhere in the world. She now worries about what results will come from the Chinese covid wave in the coming months.
– What will be interesting is whether the omikron variant is a kinder variant, even in China, and how bad it will be for China. How many will die and how many will suffer from long-term ailments? We will have more data on this in the future, he tells Nettavisen.
– China is very quickly moving from a zero-covid strategy to almost a free pass. What do you think?
– They should have significantly ramped up vaccination efforts before opening up. Many people are vaccinated in China, but Chinese vaccines are not as effective against omicrons. In Norway, we also suddenly gave up in February this year, but we were better vaccinated and well prepared. In China, people are not so prepared. It’s not clear how this will play out, since the people in China are less protected than we were ourselves when the authorities decided on a “free release,” Spurkland points out.
– It has been said that 60% of a population of 1.4 billion could be infected in the next two months. What do you think?
– Omikron spread took longer in Norway, up to several months. However, we were a well vaccinated population. If we calculate it purely mathematically, then it is probably true that 60 percent can be infected within a couple of months, as this is a fairly contagious variant of the virus. But how it will end in practice in these two months is difficult to say. It could take more than two months, because the spread also depends on how people behave and how effective immunity against the virus is, replies the expert.
Hard to predict
The immunologist believes it is difficult to answer the question of when the pandemic will be over, because it depends on several factors.
– In Norway, covid has already been in the rear view mirror to a considerable extent, but there are more people who are sick right now and we are encouraged to stay home if we are sick. What is an uncertain point for the future is how long are you immune to corona infection? Can you get infected every single year? We can get continuous corona reinfections and that could become a problem, she replies.
– That remains to be seen. So far I have not seen any convincing results that cause concern. If you have been infected a couple of times in a row, it means that the virus has changed. So the antibodies weren’t good enough. This opens up another question about how often one should be vaccinated with an updated vaccine, Spurkland adds.
