NOSElection programs
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 20:24
When the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) comes up with the traditional calculation of the election manifestos tomorrow morning, it will not include the plans of two parties that are high in the polls. NSC by Pieter Omtzigt and BBB by Caroline van der Plas have not had their proposals calculated. The same applies to the SP, PVV, Party for the Animals, Denk and Forum for Democracy.
They criticize the way the CPB accountants do their work. This criticism has been around for much longer, but never before has the number of refusers been so large. This means that the calculation this time does not provide a complete picture.
The bone of contention for most refusers are the economic models that the CPB uses to predict what the consequences of plans will be for the treasury and the economy. According to SP leader Lilian Marijnissen, these are “neoliberal models”, where her party’s ideas automatically come out poorly.
Minimum wage
As an example, she mentions the increase in the minimum wage, something the SP has been advocating for some time. “We have been fighting with the CPB about this for years. We always came up with a bad calculation because that would be disastrous for employment. Well, we know better.”
The CPB has now changed its mind about this, says Marijnissen. “And now all kinds of other parties also want a higher minimum wage. But in the meantime we are faced with enormous skew growth in wages.” In 2021, the SP still participated, reluctantly, but not anymore. Marijnissen: “We want to have a battle of ideas and not an accountant’s debate.”
At the same time, many parties have now acquired so much knowledge about the CPB models that they know very well which proposals will help them make a good calculation. Tax credits for workers encourage people to work, and that has a positive effect on the CPB assessment. Parties then make good use of this.
Since 1986, the CPB has presented the report shortly before the House of Representatives elections Choices mapped out, in which the plans of the political parties are examined. The idea is that this will make the election manifestos easier to compare. It becomes clearer how politicians want to pay for their plans and what choices they are willing to make to achieve their goals. The CPB acknowledges itself that the economic effects “is of course only one aspect of the policy choices before elections”.
These choices are often not very concrete in the election manifesto. That is why there is frequent contact between the CPB and the financial specialists of the various parties during the calculation process.
That is also the main criticism of NSC party leader Pieter Omtzigt, one of the frontrunners in the polls. He believes that the CPB works with a kind of false reality that has nothing to do with the real world and that is too easy to manipulate by parties.
Moreover, he said he could not have his program calculated because the deadline for submitting the plans had already passed before the party was founded. He came under a lot of criticism in last Sunday’s RTL debate. “Your party program thus becomes a menu without prices,” said VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz.
Omtzigt then promised that he would soon provide his own overview of what his plans cost and yield.
Still calculated
The fact that so many parties do not have their plans calculated does not mean that it does not happen at all. Wim Suyker is busy in his attic room watching how the various party programs turn out. He did this as an economist at the CPB, and he has continued it now that he has retired.
His conclusion is that many programs are very vague about the financial and economic consequences. “It is full of uncertainties. I see entire lists of things that need to be done. But how, and when, is not stated.”
Suyker also calculated the plans of NSC and BBB. His conclusion is that both increase the government deficit. Omtzigt spends about 2 billion euros more than it brings in, while at Van der Plas it is 7 billion. And that is a minimum estimate, because he also encountered a lot of vagueness and ambiguity in those parties.
NOSWim Suyker in his attic room among the party programs
2023-11-07 19:24:08
#parties #plans #calculated #CPB
