The Consequences of Russia’s War in Ukraine on Moldova’s EU Integration and Security

The consequences of the war started by Russia in Ukraine are felt in Moldova – cheap Russian gas supplies have ended, but around 80,000 refugees from Ukraine have arrived. However, since Russian warships no longer threaten the strategically important Ukrainian port city of Odesa, Moldovans no longer worry that Moldova could be the next target of Russian aggression after Ukraine.

“For now, everyone tries not to think or talk about it,” says Nina, a resident of Chisinau.

“In the beginning, when hostilities started, there was general nervousness – many even drove away because they were afraid. Now everything has calmed down,” says Igor.

However, Moldovans are aware that Moldova’s defense forces are very weak, as they have only recently begun to invest in them. Moldova’s previous pro-Russian governments relied on Moldova’s neutrality.

“Moldova has too few capabilities to protect itself from a conventional attack,” admits Julian Groza, head of the “European Policy and Reform Institute” think tank.

However, the war started by Russia in Ukraine has given a huge boost to Moldova’s progress towards the European Union.

“It is clear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has paradoxically helped Moldova. Of course, it has hindered Moldova at the same time, because it also resulted in a huge flow of refugees. However, it must be admitted that it has helped European integration,” says European Union Ambassador to Moldova Jānis Mazeik.

Along with a new push towards Europe, Russia’s desire to keep Moldova’s multi-ethnic and diverse society in its circle of influence has also increased.

“Russia is still strong here in Moldova. Moldova is currently fighting for better legislation to fight this Russian propaganda. But it won’t be a matter of days or months. It usually takes years,” concludes Madalin Nexutu, a Romanian TV journalist in Moldova.

The battle for the minds and hearts of Moldovans is now in full swing. The EU has just announced the creation of a special mission in Moldova to strengthen its crisis management, resilience against hybrid threats, including cyber attacks and disinformation.

The symbolism of the European Union can be seen here in many places, but even in Chisinau, not to mention the autonomous Gagauzia and the breakaway Transnistria, not everyone is convinced that it is Europe, and not Russia, that is Moldova’s best friend.

“We are old, we don’t know. We are used to living with Russia,” says the elderly woman Paraskovija, whose husband was from Latvia.

“I love both Russia and Europe. I can’t choose and say – they are good, but these are bad. I think it is better to be neutral and with love,” says Ludmila, a resident of Chisinau.

The numbers show that Europe, not Russia, is a greater support for Moldova’s economy. Two-thirds of Moldova’s exports go to EU countries, but 13 times less to Russia.

“Of course, through its satellites or cooperation partners, Russia definitely tries to influence the political space as well, through individual parties – be it Shor’s party or the socialist party – they try to advance their interests in the political field as well,” says Latvian Ambassador to Moldova Uldis Mikut.

Everyone recognizes that Moldova is a very fragile and vulnerable country. As long as the existing pro-European kingdom is in power, the course it has started towards Europe will continue. However, if this government falls, or if Russia succeeds in winning over the minds and hearts of more Moldovans, everything may yet change.

“Imagine what would have happened here if this country was still run by Russian agents, as it was in the 2000s, until 2020.

Moldova would have become another Belarus, and Russia would use it as a bridgehead against Ukraine,” argues Groza.

Therefore, it is important in Moldova not only for the government, but also for the citizens to see the benefits that the move towards the EU would bring, as some are not yet ready to notice them.

CONTEXT:

President Maija Sandu has been in power in Moldova since December 2020, who has declared Moldova’s admission to the EU as her goal. The first step was taken in the summer of 2022, when Moldova, together with Ukraine, obtained the status of an EU candidate country.

Moldova’s rapprochement with the West is not to the liking of Russia, which has warned Moldova “not to repeat Ukraine’s mistakes”. Moscow’s rhetoric has increased fears that Moldova could become the next target of Russian aggression.

For more than 30 years, Russia has supported Transnistrian separatists who refuse to submit to Chisinau’s rule.

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