The situation on the Korean peninsula has worsened in recent months. On Wednesday, 23 missiles were launched from North Korea, one of which was sent southwest to land in the sea outside Seoul.
It is the first time a North Korean missile has landed this close to the South Korean mainland since the Korean peninsula was divided in 1953, according to the South Korean Ministry of Defense.
Kim Jong-un inspects intercontinental weapons in 2017. Over the past five years, there has been a less tense situation between North Korea and its neighbor to the south. Photo: KCNA
The missile launch is to be seen as a response to the “Vigilant Storm” military exercise which began on Monday.
The exercise, which is a joint exercise between South Korea and the United States, resumed after several years of hiatus following Donald Trump’s attempts at diplomatic talks with North Korea.
On Wednesday, South Korean rockets were fired into the border area in response to provocation from the neighboring country to the north.
EXPERT: Researcher Stein Tønnesson is a specialist in North Korea. Photos taken during Arendal Week 2018. NTB photo: Terje Pedersen
– As ordered
According to Asian researcher Stein Tønnesson of the Institute for Peace Research (Prio), this escalation has been felt for some time. He also believes that South Korea’s harsh response will come as ordered for Kim Jong-un.
– North Korea was completely isolated during the pandemic. The necessary trade with China was impacted by the closing of the borders and put a strain on the North Korean population, explains Tønnesson.
Furthermore, the defeat in Kim’s attempt to reach a diplomatic solution with US President Donald Trump has been a crisis for the North Korean leader, he continues.
According to Tønnesson, the reduction in escalation over the past five years has lasted longer than expected and now that border closures have ended, many have been waiting for Kim to pick up on the aggressive signals we remember in the years leading up to 2017.
– When South Korea fires air-to-ground missiles above the current “limit line”, this is done as ordered for Kim Jong-un. It has nothing but military power to use to gain international attention, the researcher says
A South Korean fighter fires an air-to-ground missile in the direction of North Korea during Wednesday’s military exercises. Several hundred American and South Korean planes are participating in the exercise. Photo: YONHAP PRESS AGENCY
South Korea’s presidential change also contributes to the situation. The new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, is conservative and wants closer cooperation with Japan and the United States. He is not bad for North Korea.
Tønnesson does not ignore the fact that the conflict will escalate further, and this is something he fears most.
– The horror scenario
– So far we’ve only seen rocket launches. There may also be direct combat situations. But the most dangerous thing is that there may be another nuclear test, says Tønnesson.
– It’s the horror scenario itself. The last time it happened, in September 2017, it was about to end catastrophically, he explains.
North Korea then carried out a test explosion inside a mountain near the Chinese border.
The United States and South Korea have repeatedly warned that the tests could culminate in another nuclear test. If so, this will be North Korea’s seventh accomplishment.
He made the mountains sink
– The explosion was so powerful that the mountain sank. When the North Koreans later entered the mountain, it is estimated that around 200 workers died in a landslide. In the worst case, the rock could break and radioactivity could escape.
– If the wind had come from the south, radioactivity would have blown over China, says Tønnesson.
A before and after image of the test area at Punggye-ri shows that there were large landslides in the area shortly after the hydrogen bomb exploded. Photo: AFP / PLANET Photo: Ho
Reactions to this incident were not publicly disclosed by Chinese authorities, but it must have made a strong impression on China afterwards, the Asian researcher believes.
Tønnesson has no basis for saying that technological knowledge in North Korea has improved slightly and fears what could happen in the event of a potential new test explosion.
– It makes me tremble, he says.
Failed diplomatic attempt
North Korea launched many missiles into the sea this year, reinforcing the determination of South Korea and the United States to resume military exercises that Trump temporarily stopped.
Kim Jong un and Donald Trump met in Singapore in June 2018. Photo: Saul Loeb
– Trump’s decision was controversial, but he wanted dialogue with Kim Jong-un and ordered the end of the exercises that have always been perceived as a provocation by North Korea, says Tønnesson.
Today’s intense missile test is likely motivated by the ongoing military exercise and North Korean authorities are waving their nuclear threat swords.
The situation is further aggravated when the White House accuses North Korea of supplying Russia with a significant amount of artillery shells for use in Ukraine.
Kim Jong-un inspects facilities around the Pukguksong-2 medium-range missile in May 2017. Photo: STR
President Joe Biden’s Security Advisor John Kirby says the United States believes North Korea is trying to make it look like the grenades are being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, but does not provide any details on how the grenades end up in Ukraine.
He had to seek refuge
On Wednesday, residents of the South Korean island of Ulleungdo, between South Korea and Japan, were told to take cover in underground shelters as the missile headed for the sea.
Both South Korea and Japan called security meetings after the incident.
South Korea calls it a territorial violation. The South Korean defense says it involves seven short-range missiles and another sixteen missiles, including six surface-to-air missiles.
Additionally, the South Korean defense claims that North Korea fired a hundred artillery shells that landed in what is described as a maritime buffer zone.
