A few words about Israel and the situation there.
1. One thing is clear – Netanyahu is not planning serious ground operations. That is, an armored fist of 200-300 tanks, 100,000 people has not been created on the border, and military aircraft have been deployed from other fronts. Nothing like this will happen.
2. Why? Because in our world, where everything has an absolutely clear price, even human life, for the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza, about 100 victims among the Israeli population are needed. Then and only then is there public opinion inside the country and also a legitimate foreign policy justification for the assault on Gaza with knives in his teeth. Like this, without snot if.
3. Therefore, we are moving towards another truce for the sake of a truce, since the problem is not being solved. It can only be solved by victims and blood on both sides – or by a complete sweep of Gaza. Where the victims will be for 12-15,000 people and somewhere you have to count on 300 victims among Israeli soldiers.
4. Whether it is necessary to discuss the progressively schizoid leftist press in the world, which places emphasis and presents information in such a way that it becomes clear that Israel is a fiend of hell – I think it is not necessary. Particularly “happy” is the NT newspaper, which simply drives out an outright substitution of concepts and presses on feelings, asking a question in style, and if your child is blown up by a bomb from an airplane or with a stupid proposal that Jews can get along with the returning millions of Arab refugees and their descendants.
5. Until an outside observer understands the tactics of waging such a war on TV, it is useless to explain. It begins with the fact that the Arabs begin to shoot, allegedly for an absolutely legitimate reason. But upon closer examination – a reason, not a reason at all, but an excuse. Then, starting to shoot, not especially aiming anywhere, the main thing is towards Israel, the Arabs provoke an Israeli response, which is not done by hooligans on the street, but by a professional army, which, if it hits, it hurts. Therefore, the Arabs in this case use the tactics of selling this war on TV for useful idiots – placing their missiles and installations on the roof of the hospital, next to the kindergarten, in the school yard, etc. With the expectation that the more children or sick people die from an Israeli retaliatory strike, the better for their propaganda and the more useful idiots will squeal on various social networks. This method is proven and reliable. Therefore, either you need to take the liberty of not reacting if you are called a fascist (as well as a racist recently) in response to your legal, retaliatory actions, or you can immediately give up. After all, it is impossible to fight an army of scoundrels and bandits who do not care about their own children, old people and women.
6. The problem cannot be solved politically. I do not see and cannot see, and who and how can solve it, having a dual power among the Palestinians and a complete absence of a real desire to somehow negotiate. It is much more convenient to just play for time and make money on the process itself, and not on its end.
7. Israel is also full of visible and hidden reasons, to play for time and not decide anything. Various proposals for the transfer or redemption of land, I do not discuss as funny today. Also, waiting for a big war, where the Palestinians will help some Arabs from outside to attack Israel, and Israel, in response, will organize their mass eviction from these territories, as justified by the war, is also not to be expected. Today, Israel does not have a single serious enemy on the borders that can undertake any kind of invasion of the country. Syria is in ruins. Jordan will never dare to do anything and the king there absolutely does not need it. In Egypt, the military is in power, who may not like Jews, but think pragmatically, especially having problems with Turkey and Iran at the same time. Therefore, the war that will give Israel such opportunities will not be for a long time. And any other violent action will be met with hostility by the world in the form of a boycott of the Israeli economy. If they are ready for a sharp decline in living standards, then you can take the risk, but otherwise this option is dead.
8. Therefore, we can safely say that the situation when they shoot from Gaza or shoot from Lebanon will not go anywhere for a long time. The bad news is that the local craftsmen are in the workshops, they are far from being such idiots and fools as not to understand or be able to do anything. These Arab home-grown specialists, by the method of typing, and by education, have achieved great skill in the production and improvement of missiles, which they rivet in Gaza. Let me remind you that there are relatively few Iranian or Russian missiles there, since they can only be delivered in very single batches from Egypt, through underground passages. The port of Gaza is closed and controlled by Israel to a certain extent. There is no airport. Therefore, there are no massive supplies to Gaza. Or we would have seen there tanks and artillery, which both did not exist and does not exist. This means that the main production of missiles is handicraft. Widely delivered and streamlined, handicraft production. In which they have achieved a high degree of skill if their missiles reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
9. I do not know how true this is, but I have read and heard several opinions, including from experts, that the Iron Dome is showing more and more malfunctions. I don’t know why, but it is quite possible that the missiles have changed or their trajectory has changed, which confuses the protection electronics. Because, as before, we did not talk about 100% protection, and now we are not talking about it. Victims are inevitable when 2,000 rockets fly at you. And I do not yet see that the intensity of the shooting has subsided. So there are charges there for a good month of active action. It’s no joke to say in 1.5 days – 1200 missiles of various calibers and quality, but still.
10. The version of the evil omnipotent wizard Putin, who found an opportunity to dig a giant tunnel directly from Moscow to Gaza and supplies all the weapons there – please do not offer it as ridiculously stupid. I repeat, there are no routes for the delivery of such weapons, and the unfinished port in Gaza is constantly under Israeli supervision. Unloading a ship with heavy weapons there so that no one notices – sorry, but this is for fans of fantastic conspiracies. At most we are talking about some spare parts that we were able to supply from the Sinai through the underground passages. Again, the Egyptians on the other hand are mortally afraid of the appearance of such missiles at Hamas. This means that the local jihadists in Sinai who are fighting the Egyptian army will also have them along. Therefore, it is impossible to see these tunnels as the supply of such weapons. The thing is that local craftsmen in Gaza have become professionals from craftsmen.
And further? Nothing specific and long-lasting. Another temporary plaster for a deep puncture wound with developing sepsis.
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