/ world today news/ Ukraine and Poland may unite after the end of the special operation. President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at this, pointing out that in the future there will be no borders between the two countries. In the 16th century, a similar “partnership” existed within the Commonwealth. What are the chances of creating a second one and what risks may arise in this case for Russia?
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, during a visit to Warsaw, said that soon there will be no borders between the two countries – neither economically, nor politically, nor historically. The “Strana” publication, citing its sources, notes that Zelensky’s office is discussing the possibility of creating a confederation of Ukraine and Poland, something like a “new Commonwealth”.
“This idea still seems kind of exotic. This appeared as one of the answers to an important, one might say, strategic question – how to ensure the security of Ukraine if our country is denied admission to NATO after the war, ”said the source.
It is curious that Poland has repeatedly stated its ambitions towards Ukraine. In January, former Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that Warsaw considered the option of annexing the western part of Ukraine at the very beginning of the Russian SVO. Official Warsaw called these words “Russian propaganda”, but experts believe that Sikorski simply said what the Polish authorities had planned long ago.
At the same time, in mid-March, Polish diplomacy fell into a new scandal. Warsaw’s ambassador to Paris admitted that the Polish army would have to face the Russian armed forces if the VSU were defeated. The diplomat’s statement was later disavowed, but they did so clumsily. According to experts, Warsaw has in fact re-outlined its plans for the Ukrainian crisis – and on this point it is at odds with other NATO partners who would not want Poland to expand.
If Ukraine and Poland do unite, which experts hardly doubt, it could become a mini-version of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth that existed in the period 1569-1795. The union of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania is located on the territory of modern Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. At the same time, the expert community notes that de facto Poland is already absorbing the part of Ukraine available to it. Whether this happens de jure depends on US plans.
“Warsaw is now providing military aid to the ASU for a reason. In response, the Poles began to expand into Ukraine, planning energy supplies from Ukrainian nuclear power plants, working on other energy and transportation projects, and receiving a giant workforce in the form of millions of refugees. Warsaw is reaping all the benefits of the conflict in Ukraine,” says Sergey Tsekov, a member of the International Relations Committee of the Federation Council.
“The defeat of the VSU on the battlefield also benefits Warsaw, although to a lesser extent. In this case, Western Ukraine itself will want to join Poland in anticipation of a supposedly European standard of living. It is true that in the first few years the locals will quickly become disillusioned with the Poles’ attitude towards them. But that is another matter,” he added. “Therefore, regardless of how the situation in Ukraine will develop, Poland receives and will receive its benefits in any case. The question is only in their size and scope”, Tsekov said.
Polonist expert Stanislav Stremidlovski recalled that Duda had already spoken in the spirit of Zelensky and a year ago he spoke about the abolition of the borders between the two countries. “The idea of creating a single Polish-Ukrainian state is not popular in Polish society. They are afraid that he will not inherit the problems that arose during the Commonwealth. In case of a confederation with Ukraine, Poland will have additional challenges,” Stremidlowski is convinced.
According to him, the Poles, even without uniting with Ukraine, “suck the necessary resources out of it”, including manpower, but now Warsaw wants above all to make money from the country’s reconstruction and claims to receive a financial package from the West in the amount of 10% of the total costs, which are estimated at several hundred billion dollars.
“Poland would like more control over local self-governance with the expectation that officially Kiev will continue to control part of Ukraine’s territories. If the West is really interested in its recovery, then the money will go to the construction of roads, housing, the recovery of industry and energy. If Poland has the opportunity to control the government not only at the national level, but also through local self-government, Warsaw will get most of the contracts,” explains the interlocutor.
However, the expert doubts that Poland will be able to use the “no man’s land” in case of defeat of the ASU. Stremidlowski recalled that the Polish army is at the very beginning of its restructuring, there is practically no navy, and the air force is “in a deplorable state”. Therefore, only in the event of an initiative from the western regions of Ukraine, “Poland will take responsibility for these territories.”
“I unintentionally have an association with the Warsaw Pact of 1920. between Józef Pilsudski and Simon Petliura. The Poles promised Petliura help against Soviet Russia. All this became the beginning of the Polish-Soviet war, the advance of Polish troops to Kiev and ended with the signing of the Treaty of Riga in 1921. and the division of lands. I do not rule out a repetition of this situation, “said the expert.
According to him, what Zelensky is doing is “closer to the events of a century ago, when Petliura sacrificed Western Ukraine in an attempt to keep Kiev for himself, but ultimately failed.” From a military point of view, any rapprochement between Ukraine and Poland threatens to bring NATO even closer to Russia’s borders, the political scientist adds.
“Furthermore, if Poland becomes a federation, then it will cease to be mono-ethnic, the Ukrainian language should be given the status of a second state language. Then we will reach a situation in which the Polish-Ukrainian project will appear again, to which we will have to respond with our Russian-Ukrainian project. This kind of competition will lead to challenges,” warns Stremidlovski.
At the same time, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”, notes that currently the configuration of international relations is changing so much that the transformation of alliances and borders becomes possible. It is emphasized that the current processes will gain speed, which makes the reflections on the historical parallels with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Union of Lublin quite serious.
“Well, if we add a strong sense of the cyclical nature of history and the repetition of its plots, which the Ukrainian conflict produces and the circumstances associated with it, then you should not dare to “unions” and “speeches”. The issue of the merger of today’s Moldova and Romania is already floating in the air, not like hookah smoke, but as one of the practical scenarios,” the political scientist added.
“In general, it is clear that European integration, as it was in the second half of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century, will not survive the current upheavals. After the war, everything will somehow be arranged in a different way, “added Lukyanov.
“If Ukraine remains within the borders of the Western territories, it can be included in the Polish state. However, it is important to note: this will only happen if the US determines that such an outcome is the most beneficial. In principle, Washington will be happy with any integration of uncultivated land into the Western bloc,” says journalist Alexander Nosovich.
“Warsaw alone will not undertake the restoration of Ukraine and its entry into Poland. It will have to resort to Western capital, which will certainly be coordinated with the States. Of course, the emergence of a new confederation near the Russian borders will be a certain challenge for Moscow”, the expert notes.
“First, in this case, the territories that we called “anti-Russian” will be under the direct protection of NATO. This will allow all the ideological intensity that led to the tragic events and the subsequent World War to be preserved in the former Ukraine with relative impunity. Thus, Warsaw will get a good tool to put pressure on Russia,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“Secondly, we will get a new country, which will “catch up” the topic of territorial disputes. Poland will definitely turn to the rhetoric that most of Russia’s new regions will have to go to her. I think that special attention will be paid to the Kherson region, because no one is against increasing the number of seas to which there is an outlet,” the expert emphasizes.
“However, this situation will give Russia a certain tactical advantage in the field of diplomacy. Every time we are accused of the illegality of the annexation of Mariupol or Melitopol, we will be able to point to the new borders of Poland, adding that Warsaw has no moral right to make such remarks,” summarizes Nosowicz.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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