According to the information provided by the news agencies, Seoul believes that it needs “balanced” relations with Russia, but the supply of weapons and armaments to Kyiv is possible only in the event that South Korea itself experiences an attack. Nothing more has been said about the mentioned attack, but it is clear that it means provocations from North Korea. The issue of Seoul’s supply of weapons and armaments to Western countries, which can then deliver them to Ukraine, is bypassed in these statements. It should be reminded that the Western countries and the USA have been trying to convince South Korea for a long time to start supplying Ukraine with weapons and armaments, primarily artillery shells. The intensity of hostilities in Ukraine is such that the military factories of the Western countries are unable to provide all the needs of Kyiv, and the industrial capacities of South Korea are considered one of the “lifelines”. But direct supplies of arms and armaments will mean both a severing of remaining relations with Russia, where South Korea still has significant economic interests, and, more importantly, problems in its already complicated relationship with China, which could have a devastating effect on the South Korean economy.
The main issue that Seoul is avoiding is, however, North Korea. According to some unofficial statements of Russian officials or publications in the Chinese press, in the event that Seoul starts supplying weapons to Ukraine, both Eurasian powers are secretly, but basically openly, ready to ensure that the North Korean regime also has access to a wide range of weapons and armaments in large quantities. This will dramatically increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula and may also lead to the actual use of these weapons. The latter option seems quite likely in the event of a large-scale military conflict over Taiwan.
As a result, Seoul is in a frankly difficult situation. On the one hand, the United States is its main ally and guarantor of security and needs to be supported. At the same time, impressive economic interests and even greater risks to national security are located in the second cup of scales. Accordingly, an attempt is made to limit oneself to half steps. Moreover, while South Korea’s situation is clearly the most complicated in this regard, it is far from the only country currently dealing with the same dilemma with similar methods.
