Shifting the center of gravity from the Mediterranean and the Middle East to Eastern Europe creates a Cold War atmosphere very close to Central Europe
What does Ukraine have to do with the Western Balkans, Moldova and Greece?
The joint communiqué after the informal meeting of the leaders of the Western Balkans (and beyond) states:
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a pivotal moment for Europe. The Western Balkans, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, geographically adjacent to the EU Member States, share a common European heritage, History and a future defined by common opportunities and challenges».
A declaration oriented towards Euro-Atlantic goals and not at all towards the interests of the Balkans or the deterrence of Turkey.
At the Mitsotakis-Zelensk meetingi Greece agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft F-16 together with the Netherlands, the Denmark and them USA. The dythe first countries will give 61 aircraft. These will be operationally ready with crews after six months (at least) ie for operations next aspring. There are doubts whether they will change the situation or it will be a repetition of the use of tanks Leopard and modern western guns. Russia, on the other hand, has used very little eso far its own fighter jets and is apparently keeping them for the critical moment.
The confrontation between the West and Russia is intensifying. After Russia’s tightening of Ukrainian pressure failed after 2014 and Russia responded with an invasion, it sought to wear it down with sanctions. When that didn’t work either, came the extension of the encirclement with the Balkans and Eastern countries and the over-equipment of Ukraine with Western modern weapons. A war of attrition on both sides. The West seeks the military weakening of Russia and the West seeks the economic weakening of Europe.
Europe is becoming again «castle» and the former eastern countries the stronghold. But that’s about strategy. At the tactical and day-to-day level and on the battlefield, the Ukrainian counteroffensive completes a month and a half of efforts and has not borne fruit. No large inhabited place has been taken nor of course has an advance been made in the direction of the Crimea or the ports of Mariupol and Bryansk. They haven’t even come close to the main Russian defense line. The euntil now battles are taking place in front of it, where there are minefields and Russian artillery barriers.
The Americans even supplied Ukraine with cluster munitions (cluster bombs), which cause casualties to uncovered soldiers, but they also remain a future risk to unsuspecting citizens. The Bretans supplied with long-range missiles Storm Shadow to attack command centers, ammunition depots and bridges. The French will also supply similar missiles Scalp. The above ammunition cannot change the correlation in the front line forces. However, they prolong the confrontation. After the German tanks Leopard and the British ones Challenger the american ones are coming too F-16 to cover the Ukrainian air defense and prolong the war even more.
The transfer of the center of gravity from the Mediterranean and the Middle East to Eastern Europe creates a cold war atmosphere very close to Central Europe. These countries see the war and the migration flows coming closer to them. Armaments are intensified at the expense of social programs. In the past days, Germany announced a cut of 31 billionp. from social programs. If we also take into account the economic recession, the cut-off of cheap natural gas from Russia, the standard of living of the middle and lower classes is getting worse. Faced with the dangers, these strata are being driven at a rapid pace to extreme right-wing parties and conservatism.
Our country’s continued involvement with the provision, yesterday, of armored vehicles BMP-1 and ammunition from the islands and tomorrow (probably) with Russian anti-aircraft binds the country and weakens the defense of the islands. The weakening creates the conditions for questioning the sovereignty tears.
Neoliberals used to say that free trade and loose border controls were conducive to peace. Now they seek closed borders, sanctions, cold and hot wars. What are we saying? Will the interest of the people and our country be noticed? We can have a multi-dimensional foreign policy with real respect for International Law or we will crawl inton role of the “willing and given” waiting for some dry piece, the type of reconstruction of Odessa?
* Nikos Toskas is a former minister and lieutenant general.
