The “cold spot” in the Atlantic Ocean will freeze Europe, snow also in Italy

Il global warming manifests increasingly evident effects, with frequent heat waves that hit theEuropa. A recent study suggests that these extreme conditions are partly linked to a phenomenon of cooling nell’North Atlantic Oceanknown as “cold spot”result of melting of Arctic ice. Freshwater from the Arctic thaw flows into the Atlantic, altering ocean currents and influencing atmospheric conditions in Europathus contributing to the appearance of extreme temperatures.

L’Europa it is warming faster than other areas of the world. Summer heat waves are amplified by the presence of warm, dry air masses which block the arrival of cooler, more humid air. However, it is not just local conditions: the study suggests that the influence of melting ice in the North Atlantic could be a determining factor in these changes. This dynamic, analyzed in research published on Weather and Climate Dynamicsit even allows you to predict periods of extreme heat or intense frost months or years in advance.

The role of the “cold spot” in the North Atlantic

The continued dissolution of the arctic ice — including sea ice and glaciers Greenland — annually releases large quantities of fresh water into theAtlantic Oceanmodifying the natural balance of the waters. This mass of fresh water, accumulating on the surface, creates a sort of barrier which limits mixing with deeper, saltier waters. Consequently, the ocean surface temperature decreases abnormally, giving rise to the so-called “cold spot”. Marilena Oltmanns, climatologist del National Oceanography Center of the United Kingdom, confirms that this region represents one of the few cooling areas, as noted by the NASA.

Blockage of the Gulf Stream and impact on the European climate

Ocean currents, like the Gulf Streamare influenced by fresh water input. Normally, this current carries heat towards theEuropabut the influx of fresh water alters this pattern. Typical North Atlantic storms, which arise from the interaction between cold and warm waters, become more intense with one “cold spot” more pronounced. The presence of this cold area increases the energy of winter stormsstrengthening the westerly winds.

The Coriolis effect, linked to the earth’s rotation, allows these winds to push the North Atlantic Current towards the north. This current touches the British Isles and diverts the jet flowcreating conditions of high pressure which trap hot, dry air over Europe during the summer, leading to prolonged heat waves. In winter, however, this same dynamic could intensify the cold.

Colder winters: a possible scenario

The analysis of the hottest and coldest summers in Europa reveals how meltwater affects the climate. The researchers studied four decades of climate data, focusing on the most extreme summer periods from 1980 to today. The hottest summers were preceded by large inflows of fresh water into theNorth Atlanticwhile the fresher ones are not. According to the analyzes of Oltmanns and colleagues, years characterized by a more accentuated “cold spot” presented a greater incidence of heat waves in Europa.

Future implications: towards a warmer Europe?

Summer heating and winter cooling in Europa they are phenomena still debated among climatologists. Jennifer Francis del Woodwell Climate Research Center suggests an alternative theory, according to which the influx of fresh water would slow down the Gulf Streamdepriving Europe of its natural heat supply and predisposing it to periods of extreme cold in winter. However, summer heat appears independent of winter conditions. In any case, the presence of the Atlantic Blob constitutes a reality destined to expand, with potential effects on both summer heat and winter cold.

Scientific uncertainties and hypotheses

The question remains open and complex, with scientists continuing to cast alarms based on constantly updated research and observations. Forecasts remain uncertain, and researchers are still evaluating the actual possibility of waves of extreme cold for the winter of 2024-2025, with hypotheses that still require robust confirmation.