The CIS gives the PSOE up to 150 seats in the 10-N elections | Spain

In the most favorable scenario for Pedro Sánchez, the socialists would add an absolute majority with United We Can. But José Félix Tezanos’ CIS leaves other options open: he would also add it to Ciudadanos. The grand coalition (the sum of the first two parties, PSOE and PP) would have up to 231 deputies, well above the absolute majority (176). The survey was carried out from September 21 to October 13, the day before the sentence of the process: It does not take into account the violent disturbances that followed the Supreme Court ruling in the following days, nor the exhumation of Franco.

The CIS grants a difference between the left and right blocks of up to 13 points, despite the fact that on 28-A there was practically a draw. The survey gives the PSOE a manifestly better result than that of the last published surveys. And it worsens the numbers of the PP: Pablo Casado’s party, with 18.1% in vote estimate, would rise compared to the generals in April and would obtain between 74 and 81 deputies, a strong rise compared to 28-A but below of the surveys that place it around 100 seats. Ciudadanos would become the fourth force, ahead of Vox, with 10.6% of the votes and between 27 and 35 seats. Albert Rivera’s party continues to decline – in April it won 57 seats – although it limits the damage with respect to what the main houses of analysis estimate.

Unidas Podemos would regain third place and move in a range between 37 and 45 seats (compared to 42 in the last general elections) and 14.6% of the votes. Más País, the platform led by Íñigo Errejón with Compromís and Equo, would obtain between three and four deputies, far from the expectations generated in recent weeks. One of the consequences of obtaining representation only by Madrid and the Valencian Community is that it would not have its own parliamentary group in Congress. Unlike the push given by other polls, Vox would drop compared to the April elections and with a 7.9% intention to vote it would stay between 14 and 21 seats (six months ago it got 24).

The CIS results deviate from those of most polls published these days. Polls published by the various media predict that the PSOE will maintain its 28-A results, a rise of the PP to 100 seats, a notable rise in Vox and the collapse of Citizens. In its April poll, released before the last general election, the CIS results largely agreed with the final 28-A figures.

The CIS attributed a 34.2% vote estimate to the Socialists in the September barometer, more than five points above the result in the April general elections (28.68%). The PSOE doubled the PP, which obtained 17.1%, four tenths more than 28-A (16.70%). Ciudadanos was already, according to the CIS demoscopy, the party that suffered the most pronounced drop with respect to its result in the generals six months ago (15.86%). Albert Rivera’s party lost three points. The CIS gave Vox 7.5% in September compared to 10.26% in the last generals.

Sánchez remains as the best valued

Pedro Sánchez is the best valued leader according to the latest CIS demo work. The acting president and secretary general of the PSOE obtained 4 points out of 10 possible, although since July he has lost six tenths (4.3 in September). It’s more, it became the only pass in years by getting 5.1 on the May barometer, Next up is Pablo Casado with 3.1 points. The PP leader maintains the same assessment that he had. A tenth more than Albert Rivera, Alberto Garzón, federal coordinator of IU – both had 3.2 in September – and Errejón. The general secretary of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias stands at 2.9 points: in the previous barometer he had 3.1 and in July his assessment was 3.3 points. The worst rated, by far, is Santiago Abascal, from Vox, with a 2.2. Same as in September and one tenth less than in July.

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