By..Nattha Mahattana, CFA Assistant Managing Director
Investment Strategy and Client Relations Department, Krung Thai Asset Management Co., Ltd.
The Chinese economy will guide the US dollar.? Bank of America presents the latest perspective. (Aug. 29) “Confidence in the Chinese economic outlook” will be the most important factor that determines the direction of the dollar from now on … not the Fed … If investors believe that China can stimulate the economy, they will not want to hold it. “Safe haven currency” (safe haven), the dollar weakens.
strategist KTAM Stitch the other half of the picture. When the dollar tends to weaken, the Chinese government and the PBOC will dare to move forward with more monetary easing and fiscal stimulus policies. Investors are more confident. This is the process of building up the Chinese stock market and the renminbi level. #Ability of the Bull
US labor market ‘cooling’ prompts Fed to stop raising interest rates Job openings in July, 3 consecutive month reduction < 9 million, first time since March 2021, job vacancies to unemployed ratio 1.5 times (previously 1.6), quits rate fell to 2.3% back to normal Moved before COVID Economics Guru Jason Furman I believe this number is good for predicting inflation. because it reflects the point of view of the employee Core PCE July Inflation +4.2%YoY and 0.2%MoM, Exactly as Market Expected FedWatch Tool Reflects Opportunity to “Keep Rates On” at FOMC November Meeting, Surpassing 60% (Last Week < 50%)
central bank of china (PBOC) support the yuan By reducing the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio from 6% to 4%, effective Sept. 15, the yuan appreciated USDCNH to below 7.27 (Sep. 1).
PBOC cuts first home interest rates and lowers down payment rates While many cities “respond to the policy”, starting to relax the criteria for lending, the signal is clear! China’s Real Estate Stimulation Expo has arrived.
The Chinese government prepares to increase personal income tax deductions. for alimony and child tuition Including support for seniors in the family To reduce the burden on the people with the expectation that it will stimulate consumption.
Caixin PMI, China’s manufacturing sector ‘surprise’ turn around for expansion Aug. 08.0 (expected 49.3 Jul. 06.2)
Country Garden, the “difficult giant” of the Chinese real estate sector Which has postponed the deadline to vote for “debt stretching” domestic bonds for 2 rounds. Finally, there is good news at the end of the week! Bondholders vote “approved” for another breath.
“China” and “Commodities” to overtake all assets in the period last 4 months Today, we hardly find anyone optimistic about the future of China’s economy and stocks. But the world’s second-largest market still has some advantages. “High liquidity” due to lower for longer conditions: low inflation, low growth, low interest rates for a long time. while the traditionally popular asset of the Chinese (Which has a lot of savings) “real estate” may not be worth investing for a long time. The government has made it very clear that they want to buy stocks to support the index up. Many of these factors should go into a portfolio of high-quality, high-growth stocks (Quality Growth). KT-Ashares As for all-China funds, for example: KT-CHINA Prepare to benefit from the tendency of the Fed to stop raising interest rates and the dollar to weaken significantly. Chinese stocks have the right to rally in a “surprise” and “mostly disliked” way, we call it ourselves. Most Hated China Bull On two main factors: high liquidity and low downside, before growth fundamentals gradually improve cyclically. (commodities) such as KT-OIL, KT-ENERGY and KT-MINING There is also a chance to recover outstandingly according to China as well.
Note: Those who already have too many Chinese funds should diversify their risk to invest in other markets.
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Warning:
personal opinion not investment advice past performance It is not a guarantee of future performance. understand product characteristics return conditions Investment Guide and risks before investing All opinions are personal views. It is not related to the house view of any asset management company, bank or organization. The Belief Allocation Portfolio and Today Strategy are aligned with the personal view of item 2, both investing style. “Extreme-unlimited” is therefore very risky and very different from conventional asset allocation. Those who want to do asset allocation in a conventional way should consider the Mung | Mee | Sri | Suk or KTWC funds.
2023-09-03 06:50:22
#KTAM #Focus #Hated #China #Bull #Hoonsmart
