The chief economist of Alfa-Bank called the condition for the growth of the euro exchange rate to 100 rubles

The euro exchange rate can reach a value of 100 rubles. if the Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election, the chief economist told Vedomosti “Alfa Bank»Natalia Orlova. If Republican Donald Trump is re-elected to the post of head of state, it “will be better for the ruble,” she stressed.

In order for the single European currency to rise in price to 100 rubles, an additional weakening of the ruble must occur, and the euro must strengthen strongly, the economist continued. “In the event of a Biden victory, this is possible, because in the Biden victory scenario, relations between the US and Europe are expected to normalize,” Orlova said.

The economist noted that the US presidential elections due on November 3 are the main cause of tension in the foreign exchange market. After this date, the strengthening of the domestic currency can be expected. “I think that after the beginning of November, when there will be certainty based on the results, we will have a window for strengthening. At the end of the year, I would not expect the continuation of the weakening, or even that the rate will remain at current levels, “Orlova said.

According to the expert, by the end of this year, one can expect that the value of the dollar will drop to 70-75 rubles. This forecast is based, among other things, on the “moderately optimistic” expectations of analysts that the oil price will move towards $ 50 per barrel. Today the price of a futures contract for Brent crude oil was near $ 42 per barrel, WTI – $ 40.

Earlier today, during trading on the Moscow Exchange, the euro exchange rate for the first time since January 2016. overcame value in 92 rubles. As of 19:52 Moscow time, the value of the European currency was 92.31 rubles. The dollar exchange rate reached 79.20 rubles, exceeding the threshold of 79 rubles. for the first time since April 2 this year.

“Such a premium for geopolitical risks began to form on the market, it is not fundamental, it’s like the feelings of investors, their expectations. This premium is now increasing on the eve of the American elections and against the backdrop of new negative news, ”added Orolova, explaining that instability in the region plays a negative role in this regard, due to the resumption of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the situation in Belarus, as well as the threat of sanctions due to the hospitalization of Alexei Navalny.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.