© Julia Lazarova
– He is more likely to take the stage in the next elections.
The analysis was republished by “Deutsche Welle.”
There are definitely expectations in the society for the emergence of a new party around the charismatic Minister of Economy Kiril Petkov. It is no surprise that the caretaker Prime Minister Yanev also announced that he would vote for him in principle. There is a certain excitement in the atmosphere, and some are already anxiously awaiting the next messiah – this time with a Harvard degree.
If the Petkov project does emerge, it is unlikely to run in the November elections, when it is very likely that there will be two votes in one: for president and for the National Assembly. In order for a newborn formation to be fulfilled with life, in addition to the registration procedure itself, it is necessary for it to have an established and functioning circulatory system, ie. party structures. All this will take time, so the Petkov project is more likely to take the stage in the next elections.
The meaning of the Petkov project is not to be “Democratic Bulgaria – 2”
Judging by the fact that Petkov’s political biography goes through “Democratic Bulgaria” (DB), it seems more logical for the project to partner with her, at least for the first time. It is possible to work with the BSP. The latter would be especially probable if other stars from the official cabinet enter the party, ie. not only Vassilev and the caretaker Minister of Education, Professor Nikolay Denkov, but also people whose path in politics passes through the left, such as Interior Minister Boyko Rashkov and Professor Yanaki Stoilov.
It can be argued on the grounds that public attitudes towards figures such as caretaker Interior Minister Rashkov are “more controversial” and their effect on voters may be reversed. On the other hand, what is the use of DB if Petkov’s mission is to create a clone of it (I don’t know for sure if anyone has given him such a task, but I wouldn’t rule it out)?
Producers of similar (political) products inevitably enter into fierce competition. Pepsi and Coca-Cola have been waging relentless wars since the 1970s. However, Coca-Cola won new customers with the launch of its second oldest brand, Fanta, in 1940. In general, fantasy is useful in both marketing and politics (which, of course, is also a business).
The purpose of the Petkov project is not to be DB-2. By simply repeating, the biggest challenge for the DB will not be overcome – it still cannot take a decisive step outside the largest cities. It would not be very useful for Petkov to enter the lists of Ivanov and Atanasov’s formation, and he hardly has a desire for that either.
Through partnerships with the DB and the BSP, the new formation could help unblock the party system, which in 2021 alone gave birth to two barren parliaments unable to form a government. In that case, GERB, MRF, and probably “There is such a people” (ITN) would remain in isolation.
So far there is no party, no program, no team
It is not serious to make definite predictions about the ideological appearance of the formation. Still, we can assume that she will be more center-right. Petkov himself points out that he is a right-wing man, but he also shows empathy for traditional “left” issues – “42 percent of pensioners are below the poverty line is not OK for me.” This rhetoric is actually a classic populist ploy, but let’s not rush to call the unborn (project of) Petko “populist”.
The formation will probably try to build on what the caretaker ministers have done: dismantling the GERB-MRF model, reforming the judiciary, the prosecution, the structure and ways of working of the Interior Ministry, more transparency in the banking sector. In terms of foreign policy, Yanev’s cabinet is categorically Euro-Atlantic (although it freezes the topic of the Republic of Northern Macedonia’s EU membership). The Petkov project will almost certainly follow this path and will hardly find a common language, with Vazrazhdane, for example.
There will be more definite statements from Mr. Petkov – apart from the fact that he will not run for president – in two weeks at the earliest, when it will probably be his last working day as caretaker minister.
However, let us also say this: it is wrong to equate high ratings with positive electoral attitudes, on the one hand, and the success of a successful project, on the other. Neither the number of followers on Facebook nor the electoral attitudes automatically become election results.
It is speculative to predict who will get how many votes, whether he will not become a political hegemon, etc., especially when there is no party, no program, and the “managerial” team is not clear. The rating is the most fleeting on the political scene. It is difficult to manage: today it is here, tomorrow it is gone. When it evaporates, out of habit or out of trouble, the Bulgarian will quickly move to the other side of the road to hitchhike to the next rescuer.
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