It will be a toss-up whether the world manages to stay below 2 degrees of warming, the limit that the international community maintains as the ultimate limit before global warming becomes downright dangerous. If all countries keep their promises to become completely greenhouse gas neutral sometime in the coming decades, the increase in global temperatures could remain at 1.9 degrees. The only question is whether the countries that have promised zero emissions will meet their deadlines.
This is evident from a new calculation by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), which was published on Monday afternoon. To achieve the promise of 1.5 degrees of global warming (we are already at 1.2 degrees), the world must emit as little greenhouse gas as it absorbs in 2050: net zero.
That objective is still far out of reach, the PBL notes. Under current climate agreements, the world will still emit 36 billion tons of CO2 ‘equivalents’ too much in 2050, or two-thirds of current world emissions.
Net zero emissions
Many countries have now announced a year in which they want to achieve net zero emissions. For Europe and the US this is 2050, for China 2060, India has promised the zero emissions limit for 2070. Even if all countries adhere to this, in 2050 approximately one country such as the US will still lack CO2 emissions to reach 1.5 degree, or 6 billion tons, the PBL calculates.
“The current policy is simply insufficient,” says PBL researcher Detlef van Vuuren when asked. ‘While it is really very wise to stay as close to that 1.5 degree as possible.’
Even if all countries that have not yet set a zero-emissions year did so – and adhered to it – warming would exceed 1.5 degrees. “Then we will be somewhat on the path of 1.6 or 1.7 degrees,” says Van Vuuren.
Behind the calculations lies an important, optimistic assumption: that all countries that have announced zero emissions will first achieve their old climate pledges and from then on go in a straight line to net zero. ‘While in practice you can imagine that in countries such as India, emissions may initially increase somewhat,’ says Van Vuuren.
The new PBL report is one of a series of calculations of the state of the climate that will be published around this time. The PBL climate calculators specifically study what greenhouse gases are expected to be released into the air in 2050.
Maarten Keulemans
2023-12-09 00:02:20
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