The Central Bank published it! Here is the year-end inflation and dollar forecast

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the Market Participants Survey for September. According to the survey, participants’ year-end dollar exchange rate prediction increased to 40 TL. Participants’ current year-end consumer inflation expectation was 42.04 percent.

INFLATION EXPECTATION IS 42 PERCENT

In the report published by the Central Bank, “The participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) was 42.04 percent in this survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 41.23 percent in the previous survey period, it was 39.09 percent in this survey period. 24 months

“The post-consumer CPI expectation was realized as 24.82 percent and 23.69 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.”

The report noted the following:

“Participants’ current year-end exchange rate (US Dollar/TL) expectation was 40.00 TL in this survey period. 12 months

While the post-exchange exchange rate expectation was 39.46 TL in the previous survey period, it was 40.64 TL in this survey period.

has been realised.

POLITICAL INTEREST EXPECTATION WAS 45 PERCENT

While the participants’ expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 42.47 percent in the previous survey period, it became 45.00 percent in this survey period. While the current month-end expectation of the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate was 42.50 percent in the previous survey period, it was realized as 45.00 percent in this survey period.

END OF YEAR GROWTH EXPECTATION IS 3.4 PERCENT

While the participants’ GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.3 percent in the previous survey period, it was realized as 3.4 percent in this survey period. GDP growth expectation for 2025 was realized as 3.9 percent in this survey period.

“The January 2024 Market Participants Survey was answered by 68 participants consisting of real sector and financial sector representatives, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the participants’ responses.”