he is Banco Central share the A survey of market prospects (REM) with data from the second half of 2024. The report was prepared after the indications of more than 40 economic consultants and they projected stagnation in the inflation curve, which will remain similar from July to December. The study also tried to give a reading about the evolution of the price of the dollar until the end of the year.
We publish the Market Outlook Survey for July 2024, with the main macroeconomic forecasts on the evolution of selected variables. #REMBCRA
More information: https://t.co/xNRKckf4RP pic.twitter.com/TU8Eo4ozS3— BCRA (@BancoCentral_AR) August 6, 2024
The REM believed that the inflation there will be differences: 3,8% in August; 3,7% in September; 3,8% in October; 4.0% in November and 3,8% in December; while I would open the year with a 3,6%. If we take into account the REM numbers, at the end of the year there will have been inflation 127,4% in 2024.
About evolution of dollarthe REM is expected to close in August at $942,5; that would amount to $961,4 in September; to $986,9 in October; $1029,7 in November and would close 2024 in $1088,2. An important fact is that these prices would be lower than previously expected.
Other REM data
The Central Bank study also provided its predictions on other socio-economic indicators. “In a July survey, REM analysts projected a rate of 2024 for 2024 Gross domestic product (PIB) true 3,7% below the 2023 average, matching the outlook compared to the previous study,” the study revealed. The report explained that a large part of this decline would be set in the first half of the year, and that there has been a recovery in the second half of the year. 0.4%and in 2025 there would be an average interannual growth of 3,2%.
Another variable to examine is the level of unemployment. As estimated by the REM, in the second quarter of 2024, unemployment reached 7,9% of the economically active population (EAP), which would be in line with what was previously estimated. The study does not expect improvement before the end of the year, but the opposite; that the rate grows to a 8,1%.
