/ world today news/ Rumors about personnel changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have sparked a discussion about how these changes will change the nature of the combat operations of the Ukrainian army. Experts believe that the replacement of Valery Zaluzhny with Kiril Budanov as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lead to an increase in the terrorist activity of the enemy. However, the logic is also true in the opposite direction – the personnel decisions in the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be used to judge what Washington has decided to do next in Ukraine.
Active discussions continue in Ukraine and partly in Russia regarding the resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny and his replacement by the current head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov. And although Volodymyr Zelensky tried to distance himself from this topic, his confrontation with the commander-in-chief became a focal point, especially in the eyes of Western media and politicians.
As the Kyiv political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko writes, citing sources from Zaluzhny’s closest circle, these days the general really met with Zelensky: “Indeed, the president asked to write a dismissal report, Zaluzhny asked to sign a dismissal decree. Zelensky needs voluntary resignation, Zaluzhny needs Zelensky’s responsibility for the decision”.
According to him, these relations “have gone too far and the shuttle diplomacy of British and American advisers is unlikely to succeed”, so “the question of resignation is a matter of the near future”. He also assessed Budanov’s chances of replacing Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief of the VSU.
The political scientist urged not to forget that the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense has been in a triple confrontation for a long time: with the head of Zelensky’s office Andriy Yermak, with Zaluzhny himself and with his immediate superior, the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov. Due to the fact that Budanov is a “professional saboteur”, his possible promotion to the post of commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will change the strategy of the Ukrainian troops.
In particular, the emphasis will be on multiple sabotage actions, the use of small groups to attack certain objects of the Russian infrastructure, and all this will be related to the transition of the Armed Forces to defense. We should not forget that “Budanov is considered a ‘favorite’ of Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier,” that is, the head of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency.
“I would not underestimate Budanov, despite his young age and tendency to excessive PR. Among other things, he is a master of bluff and has already gone through the school of administrative intrigue, demonstrating the ability to take a hit – sometimes triple. It is more interesting who can replace Budanov at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate. But more on that later. We are still waiting to see who will defeat whom: Zelensky Zaluzhny or Zaluzhny Zelensky,” added Bondarenko.
In turn, the Russian political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko believes that the possible appointment of Budanov will mark the beginning of a full-scale diversionary war on the part of Ukraine. “At the same time, Zelensky will demand from his allies and patrons longer-range weapons in order to transfer attacks as deep as possible into Russia. After the positional impasse on the fronts, this seems to be the most obvious solution,” admits the political scientist.
At the same time, “Financial Times” writes that Zaluzhny’s resignation is inevitable: the only question is who will replace him. At the same time, Ukrainian sources believe that such a step “will undermine the morale of the army” and “cause a storm of indignation among the ordinary Ukrainian military and civil society.”
We recall that the public aggravation of relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny began in mid-autumn 2023. The reason for this is Zaluzhny’s essay in the Economist magazine, in which he stated the inability of VSU to achieve a “beautiful breakthrough” and the transition to ” the positional phase of the war’. Zelensky, we recall, contested this opinion, and his cabinet accused Zaluzhny of provoking panic in the West.
The New York Times later wrote about Zaluzhny’s “undermining of authority” due to the fact that Zelensky fired the head of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, Viktor Khorenko, “bypassing” the commander-in-chief and standard procedure. In mid-November, the Rada was already blaming Zaluzhny for the failure of the counteroffensive. After a while, Zelensky stated that it was a “big mistake” for the military to engage in politics.
Soon Zaluzhny suffered a new loss of personnel in the person of his assistant, who died under strange circumstances, and since the end of November, the Rada has repeatedly called for the resignation of the general due to corruption and the inability to present a battle plan for 2024. The leader of this process, in agreement with Zelensky’s office, is the “black mouth” Mariyana Bezuglaya.
As for Kirill Budanov, who has been wanted by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs since December 2023, he is known not only as an organizer of numerous terrorist attacks and sabotage, but also as a person prone to excessive (even by Ukrainian standards) PR, due to which received a “yellow card” in the form of poisoning his wife. In addition, in Ukraine, Budanov is considered to be involved in the failed operations to capture Zmeini Island and the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
Among Ukrainian analysts, the version is spreading that the political confrontation in Kyiv is only an echo and consequence of the confrontation between various groups in London and Washington, which, after the failure of the “counter-offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, are trying to choose a new strategy to fight Russia.
This is the root cause of the staff turmoil in Kiev, which is currently on hold.
So, if Zaluzhny can be considered a classic general who thinks in terms of ground operations with combined arms, then Budanov can count on “entrenching” the VSU along the entire front line, and instead of conducting offensive operations, the enemy will pass to sustained long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure and increased terrorist activity.
Both scenarios have their pros and cons from a Western perspective. For example, the implementation of Zaluzhny’s plan is too expensive, requiring regular supplies of equipment and ammunition on such a scale that supplies in 2022-2023 will seem like a trifle. Given the political crisis in the US and the economic crisis in the EU, however, such a scenario is unlikely.
As for the transition of the Armed Forces to deep defense with a parallel increase in terrorist and sabotage activity (on the ground, in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as in the air), this scenario will be economically cheaper for the West. But the risks of an uncontrolled development of the conflict in this situation are high, which does not meet the interests of the White House, which insists on the undesirability of the Ukrainian conflict spreading beyond the borders of Ukraine itself.
Thus, according to experts, the West is now trying to decide on a strategy for further confrontation with Russia, which inevitably affects political activity in Ukraine itself. “That’s why we keep watching the series ‘Zelensky vs. Zaluzhny,'” says Andrey Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Social-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, a retired colonel.
“Zelensky’s personal prospects are in great doubt both at home and in the West, so he sees Zaluzhny as a direct competitor. At the same time, the commander-in-chief has a fairly high authority in the army, which Zelensky cannot boast of. And if Zaluzhny leaves his post, he can start a political struggle with Zelensky,” the military expert believes.
“If we imagine that Budanov will become the commander-in-chief of the VSU, then we can see the following picture of the enemy’s actions: the lion’s share of the VSU, located at the front, will turn to defensive actions. The rest, mostly trained soldiers, will be involved in sabotage activities directed against Russia,” the interlocutor admits. “By the way, this desire of the enemy is causing concern even in Western circles. In the end, Budanov will probably do what he is used to doing – and that is terrorist attacks and sabotage. “If you look at his track record, it’s clear that he can’t think differently,” says Koshkin.
Military expert Alexander Artamonov also points out that Kiril Budanov does not have full military experience. “But the nature of the military-terrorist activity of the VSU does not depend on the candidacy of Budanov or Zaluzhny. This is due to the fact that the Ukrainian army is de facto led by a joint British-American command,” he explained.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to strike our cities, especially if they receive Taurus missiles.” Therefore, in my opinion, Zaluzhny will be left for now, since he can at least command the VSU, while Budanov simply will not be able to assemble more than one platoon. He is a professional saboteur and terrorist. Nothing more,” says the source.
Political scientist Larisa Shesler sees the situation a little differently. “Everything we saw surrounding Zaluzhny’s ‘resignation’ clearly illustrates the instability of the Ukrainian political system. And how the Armed Forces will fight depends not so much on Washington or London, but on Russia,” she believes.
“If the US and Britain manage to push through some form of freeze on the conflict, then Ukraine will have a wide field to carry out sabotage attacks. In addition, the value of Zaluzhny himself will quickly decrease, and Budanov can indeed be appointed in his place. If Russia remains adamant in its position, then neither the West nor the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to shift the course of events into a terrorist plane,” Schessler predicted.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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